Market Stats

We are firm believers in studying market statistics. We subscribe to some of the most advanced statistical analysis packages available in order to help us communicate market conditions to our clients and to let it help guide decision making. Many firms focus their pricing models exclusively on comparable sales (a more in depth discussion can be found here) and ignore many critical inputs to pricing. We do not.

#1 | Bidding Wars

The following visualization shows the number of sales that have occurred at, above, and below the asking price for any given period and MLS zone. It also shows the distribution of the sales so that you can gain a sense for how far above and below the accepted offers tend to be. This tool is helpful for both buyers AND sellers in determining the best strategy in any transaction.

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#2 | Availability Matrix

The availability matrix shows by the number of properties available by both MLS and $100K price range in order to gain a sense of how many opportunities exist in each area. Note that you can toggle on/off townhomes, condos, and new homes in order to better understand the choices in each sub-area.

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#3 | Months of Inventory

Inventory is a commonly used index to measure the housing supply. It is dervied by looking at the previous period’s sales and dividing into the current number of available homes. If a 200 homes sold in the past 30 days, and the current number of available homes was 600, then there would be 3 months of inventory (200/600 = 3). A market is said to be balanced if there is 5-7 months of inventory. Anything less is considered to be a ‘Seller’s Market.’ Anything more is considered to be a ‘Buyer’s Market.’

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Months of Supply – Central Virginia Region

The MOS statistic looks at the level of available homes relative to the number of homes being absorbed. We use the MOS measurement to best help buyers and sellers understand who has the advantage in any given negotiation. As supply decreases, sellers can be more resolute in negotiations. Conversely, when supply is increasing, sellers need to become more accommodating to offers.

Months of Supply – By Area

The same dynamic can be seen when cutting the MOS statistic by the region’s major counties.

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Percentage of Ask – Central Virginia Region

The following chart shows the difference between the original asking-price-to-contract-price stated as a percentage. In other words, how much of a discount are sellers taking off of their asking prices in any given month. As you would imagine, as inventory increases or when absorption decreases, one would expect the percentage discount to be larger. Please note that the the ability for a seller to take a discount from asking price is far lower when equity is low … as was the case in the 2009-2012 markets. In lieu of taking discounts, many sellers simply elected to stay put and wait for prices to rise.

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Days on Market – Central Virginia Region

Days on Market measures the number of days from when the home is officially listed to when it goes under contract. The DOM measurement is another indicator of seller/buyer balance and can also help set expectations in timeline. As one would expect, there is a strong seasonal component to DOM with lower counts in the spring.

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$/SF – Central Virginia Region

$/SF or ‘Price Per Foot’ is a measurement that is often overused and abused by both buyers and sellers. In reality, it is best used as a relative measurement when comparing like properties or within homogenous neighborhoods. In the aggregate is not overly important other than to compare regions or areas within a region. Additionally, the input to $/SF is flawed in that finished basement and/or 3rd floor spaces are considered part of the calculations, even when compared to homes without those spaces finished.