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Marketing

iBuying

January 5, 2019 By Rick Jarvis

handshake hello GIF by Laurène Boglio
Our computer would like to purchase your home.

Ever heard of iBuying? If you haven’t, you can say you heard about it here, first, because it is the newest trend in real estate sales and it is on the way to a market near you –– probably.

So what exactly is iBuying? Well, no one definition exists but generally speaking, iBuying is nothing more than a company (or fund) that buys houses from people directly –– at some amount of discount –– for cash, and typically with a quick closing.

iBuying, in effect, replaces the traditional method of an individual owner putting a sign in the yard and selling to an individual purchaser at a market price.

How Does it Work?

2001 a space odyssey GIF
I’m sorry, Dave. I can’t value your home.

In most cases, the owner of a home will go to an iBuyer website, enter information about their home, and wait for the iBuyer to tell them what they would be willing to pay. The iBuyer company will look at its valuation algorithm and make the seller an offer.

Each iBuyer has a slightly different method, but typically, the offer comes with a mandatory site visit from some representative to verify the condition of the property and the features, size, etc. and to make sure that the information given by the seller is accurate.

If everything checks out, the offer can be accepted and closing will occur quickly and for cash.

Yes, it can be that simple.

The Premise (ok, ‘The Catch’)

The catch is this –- the offers come with a discount.

The iBuyer will use an algorithm that establishes likely market value, but then subtracts the cost of commissions, any required repair money, some carrying cost, and a little bit for profit.

But even if the offers are discounted, they are all cash and come with a quick closing.

The thought is that the offer will be close enough to what a typical seller would net on the sale of their home and, thus, the seller take less to avoid the hassle of the selling process –– and to have the certainty of knowing their home is sold.

i want out house GIF by South Park
Sometimes, iBuying makes sense.

In effect, if the seller believes the ‘hassle to discount’ ratio is in their favor, then they should (in theory) accept the offer. If not, then they can sell via the traditional process.

It is a fascinating idea and one that is taking hold in several markets.

The Players

the wave dancing GIF

There are several national players who are attempting to scale this business as we speak –– Zillow Offers being the most notable, but there are others. Knock, OfferPad and OpenDoor are making a lot of noise, while Redfin and a few other brokerages have either launched or are launching their own version of an iBuying program.

And aside from the behemoths mentioned above, local franchised versions also exist –– ’We Buy Ugly Houses’ and Homvestors are forms of iBuying as well, although couched in a more of an opportunistic wrapper. 

Heck, even some local investors (typically tied to a local brokerage) have established funds to do roughly the same thing. 

The Game

Ok, before you go out and rejoice, thinking that you can trick a computer into making you an above-market offer on your 7 bedroom 1 bath Elvis Pressly themed home that is in need of $50,000 of siding and roof repair, that is not how it works. 

graceland GIF

The national iBuyers have what is called a ‘Buy Box’ to determine which properties qualify to be purchased. Typically, the ‘Buy Box’ will only include properties that their algorithms can value with a high degree of confidence –– and shy away from the ones that they cannot. 

iBuyers will also tend to shy away from thin market segments (i.e. luxury housing) where pricing means fewer buyers and longer marketing times.

So the typical Buy Box will include properties that are newer, more homogenous, less expensive, and otherwise easier to peg a value accurately. Properties that are older, historic, have unique features, are expensive, in need of massive repairs, or are otherwise difficult to determine a fair value for will fall outside of the Buy Box and not qualify for an offer. 

So don’t get too excited about an iBuyer coming in and taking your problem property off of your hands at a premium –– they won’t.

Uses and Models

iBuying has applications for sure –– mostly for cases where ‘certainty’ is required or where other factors prevent the home from transferring via conventional means. 

  • If you are a contingent buyer trying to upgrade into a hot market segment, it might make sense to use an iBuyer to sell your home so that you can qualify for the next one
  • If showing your home repeatedly is burdensome, then selling to an iBuyer makes sense
  • If you are in need of selling quickly to take a new job, or move to another market, iBuying might also make sense

But in cases where the seller can wait, or where bidding wars are likely to occur, an iBuyer really isn’t necessary.

The Real Uses

So do you know why Zillow really wants to have an iBuyer platform? And Redfin? And the others?

GIF by The Paley Center for Media

Leads.

A seller inquiring about the value of their home is nothing more than a potential seller raising their hand and identifying themselves as a potential client –– and for any brokerage, that has tremendous value.

So even if the offer is rejected, the lead can still be referred to an agent in the iBuyer network for a referral fee.

Kinda brilliant, isn’t it? You bet it is.

Successful?

The iBuying idea is still rather new and thus, the concepts have not been fully developed and the numbers being reported are not vetted. 

https://www.slideshare.net/MikeDelPrete/phoenix-ibuyer-report-teaser
Phoenix is one of the primary testing grounds for iBuying.

A recent article claimed that iBuying represented as much as 3% of the accepted offers in markets where they were operating, but that is largely a self-reported number (as well as a self-serving one) so it remains to be seen. 

But even if the iBuyer does not buy in a large number of homes, the leads generated are still of great value to the Realtor community. So for iBuying to be successful, it doesn’t have to just monetize the homes they purchase –– it has to monetize the leads it generates.

Richmond and iBuying

The big players aren’t in Richmond in force, but they are somewhat close (Raleigh, NC) and in some parts of Charlotte.

The closest iBuyer markets are in North Carolina, but no markets in the northeast are in operation.

Some locals are playing in the space here locally, but no one of any real scale.

And since Richmond is an old city with aged housing stock, the likelihood that any iBuying platform would identify Richmond as a target-rich market is low. When you look at the map above, you see no iBuyer presence in the older housing markets of the northeast.

But that said, at some point, we will see some version of the iBuying model enter our market. 

Questions Abound

So stay tuned, there are still many questions to be answered.

suspicious thinking GIF by SpongeBob SquarePants
Hmmm …
  • One of the biggest is ‘what will iBuyers do with the homes they buy?’ Some will simply resell them and others will employ a buy and hold strategy. If that happens, will it put even more pressure on inventory?
  • The other question is how will iBuying impact appraisals? If the nearest and most recent comparable sale was an iBuyer sale at a 10% discount, will that impact the value of the surrounding properties?
  • What happens when iBuyers compete with one another? Will the competition between iBuyers squeeze the profits out of the model to such a point that they exit the market?
  • What if an iBuyer ends up with enough inventory that it can act like CarMax and offer trade-in options? Supposedly, that idea is being discussed.
  • Lastly, if and when the market goes through an adjustment, are iBuyers going to be willing to purchase assets that are declining in value? Just ask developers and builders what happened to their balance sheets in 2008 – 2012 and how much fun it was to hold onto housing when it was going down in value by 10% a year for 3 straight years? Hopefully, that adjustment is nowhere near, but most felt that way in the years leading up to the recession, too.

I don’t think anyone has the answers yet.

Summary

The iBuying idea has merit, but there is a lot still to be determined.

That said, the key point is that there is a lot of money backing these firms so the iBuying model is going to be here until someone figures it out.

Like a hammer or a lawnmower, iBuying is nothing more than a tool and it has its specific uses. Learning how to use the tool properly will come with time and practice for all involved.

Having a choice is never a bad thing for the consumer and iBuying will provide the public options that they didn’t have before. 

Things I Have Been Thinking About

September 26, 2018 By Rick Jarvis

For those of you who follow the blog, you know that most times it is a pretty deep dive into a topic usually related to inventory, pricing, or strategy.

Today’s blog is not one of those. This is a shallower dive on a few different topics that we’re keeping tabs on right now. I hope you enjoy!

Facebook and Fair Housing Laws

Facebook just got nailed for violating Fair Housing Laws.

Yep, good old Facebook can’t seem to get out of its own way lately.

Their ad targeting platforms are so good that they give anyone the ability to include — or exclude — any group based on every imaginable demographic, geographic or psychographic attribute. So if you would like to advertise to everyone except a specific religion, sex, familial status, race, or age, Facebook makes it possible.

The same vehicle that was supposed to connect us all and provide a forum for discourse actually provides really awesome tools to do the exact opposite.

Irony.

Opportunity Zones

Much like Historic Tax Credits were all the rage in the 2000’s, the Federal Government’s new Opportunity Zones have developers and investors extremely excited.

The basic gist of the program is that if you purchase a property in a designated ‘opportunity zone,’ it exempts exposure to the capital gain tax, either partially or wholly, depending on how long you hold it. And while all of the details are not fully fleshed out, it also appears that the opportunity zone program will also make it easier for partnerships who use the 1031 Tax Deferred Exchange technique to break up without penalty.

In layman’s terms, Opportunity Zones provide powerful incentive to free up a ton of capital currently trapped due to tax reasons and deploy the proceeds into areas that need a little push to jumpstart the revitalization momentum. Great idea, right?

In theory, yes.

But what is funny is that they used 2010 Census data to determine where the Opportunity Zones should be. Guess what? Scott’s Addition, with rents now approaching $30/SF, is in an Opportunity Zone.

Yes, there are many needy areas that will benefit greatly from the program. But Scott’s Addition? Really? Whoever was in charge obviously didn’t sign the bill while on the roof of The Hof, while playing shuffleboard at Tang and Biscuit, while drinking a cider at Blue Bee, or having a meeting at Gather, or an IPA at Ardent, or over dinner at Brenner Pass …

Classic.

The 2020 Census

The 2020 census is right around the corner and I think everyone wants to know what the population of the City of Richmond will actually be. We have heard estimates that the growth rate has been anywhere from 2 to 5% per annum, depending on which study you read.

From the 1970’s to the 2000’s, the City’s population was either declining or flat. When your population isn’t growing, the supply of housing, office space, and retail space can remain constant. But when your population begins to grow, you have to start thinking about the impact that has on demand for space.

Fast forward to today and you have roughly 230,000 residents in the City –– which is not as many as the 250,000 residents of 1970, but when you consider that the average number of people per household has dropped by an entire person, we might already have a housing need greater than we did in 1970.

And for a city that has no legal authority to expand, Richmond has to make due with what it has. That can pose a big problem.

Right now, developers are repurposing almost any available property they can find into residential apartment space. And while that has helped provide a solution for the renter, it has shifted the burden to office, retail, and industrial spaces, especially as the business climate has improved. If the Scott’s Addition rental rates are any indicator, the shortage has already begun…

And for anyone who has tried to purchase (not rent) an ‘affordable’ home in Richmond, you know how difficult that has become, too. In the last 5 years, homes priced below $400k in the Fan, Museum District, Jackson Ward and Church Hill have increased by $30/SF and marketing times have been cut by more than half.

Affordability is already wreaking havoc on the residential market, and it seems to be now bleeding into the commercial market as well.

Lastly, A Clean Bill of Economic Health

Last week, a bunch of (arguably) smart people got on a stage in Richmond and said that the economy is strong nationally, as well as regionally.

That makes me feel good because most economists believe that this growth cycle has already surpassed any previous growth cycle in our history.

The fact that we are already in uncharted territory should make everyone nervous, except that it doesn’t. Everything looks pretty solid.

All I can add is that the housing factors that caused the crash in 2008 simply do not exist right now. So if a crash is imminent, it will not come as a result of the housing sector.

So if it all falls apart tomorrow, you can’t blame residential real estate and shady mortgage practices this time!

That’s All, Folks…

So that is it for now.

You may now return to your regularly scheduled programming.

How Much Does $1 Cost? A Critique of Real Estate Commissions

August 28, 2018 By Rick Jarvis

How much would you pay for one dollar?

No, it isn’t a trick question. And no, I am not looking for a finance major to explain time value of money or fungibility or another economic argument about scarcity, risk, or inflation.

Seriously, how much would you pay?

The answer is (wait for it) $1.

So What is 3% Worth?

Now, let’s take the same argument to the real estate world — how much would you pay for 3%?

When you decide you want to purchase a home and you enlist the help of a buyer’s agent, more often than not, the buyer’s agent will be paid roughly 3% of the transaction in the form of a commission. (Disclaimer: Commissions vary by property and company. This post is in no way an attempt to state that 3% is an industry standard.)

“Rarely does the 3% cost of the service equal the value provided by the agent.”

As a purchaser, you don’t really feel it, since the commission is typically paid from the seller’s proceeds. The commission line item is on the seller’s side of the ledger and feels far more onerous to the seller than it does the purchaser.

But I can safely say this: Rarely does the 3% cost of the service equal the value provided by the agent.

Cost Doesn’t Equal Value

So imagine a world where every product or service was the same price. Would you drive a Hyundai or a Mercedes? Would you eat McDonalds or Ruth’s Chris? Would you shop at WalMart or Nordstrom?

The answers are pretty obvious.

“Do you think that the quality of the advice matters – especially when all advice costs the same?”

But when it comes to working with Realtor, every agent costs essentially the same. So why not use the opportunity to choose the best one?

Wouldn’t you like to work with an agent who knows the value difference between a warrantable and non warrantable condo and the impact on property values? Or what about an agent who can demonstrate the 3 year appreciation rate difference between North Church Hill and Bon Air. Or could tell you at what point the marketing times spike and seller discount doubles in the Lee Davis High School district? Or James River High School?

Do you think that the quality of the advice matters – especially when all advice costs the same?

Meryl Streep or Lindsay Lohan

Warren Buffett said it best: “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”

Very few industries operate where price and value have as little correlation as real estate sales – and for the shrewd client, this disconnect presents opportunity. Each and every buyer has the opportunity to work with the Realtor equivalent of LeBron James for the same price as J.R. Smith (sorry Cavalier fans, too soon?)

So spend some time researching your Realtor. It is the one place in life where you really have the opportunity to drink Dom Perignon for the same price as Budweiser.

How to Start a Bidding War

August 5, 2018 By Rick Jarvis

Asking Price Means Everything and Nothing at All

Question — of the last 1,500 sales in the City of Richmond, do you know how many closed exactly at the asking price?

Answer — only 268!

So basically, 6 out of 7 times, the price paid and the price asked were not the same. I sincerely doubt that there is any other industry that operates this way.

Our Expectations

If you think about it, what does price really mean in real estate, anyway? According to the numbers above, 82% of the time, price only serves as a mere suggestion and offers no guarantee that what you want for your home is what you will get for your home. As a matter of a fact, there is a 43% chance you might actually get more, if you price it correctly.

For the astute seller, that can be a huge advantage.

When we go to the grocery store, we don’t negotiate for a price of milk. And when we go to the mall, we don’t negotiate the price of a pair of jeans.

So why then, does the asking price for a home and the closing price so rarely equal one another? Because each home is unique and that makes the market highly imperfect.

What Auctioneers Know

For the astute seller, that can be a huge advantage.

I once had the pleasure of watching an auctioneer analyze a potential purchase of unsold condos in a project that was struggling. Their company specialized in buying large swaths of unsold properties at a discount, and then reselling them using advanced auction techniques that drove pricing back up to a level where it earned a tidy profit for their company.

If I can get three (or more) people in the same room that want the same thing, then I get above market value and I get the most seller friendly terms.

It was the following statement that resonated with me — ‘If I can get two people in the same room that want the same thing, I always get market value for the asset. But if I can three (or more) people in the same room that want the same thing, then I get above market value and I get the most seller friendly terms.’

It was a remarkably simple and powerful observation.

Price Determines Behavior

Far too often I have seen sellers use the logic that pricing a property high gives them room to negotiate down and still receive their best net price.

What ends up happening when a home is priced above its value:

  • The people who need to see their house never end up seeing it because they feel that they cannot afford it.
  • The people who can afford it aren’t interested because the home doesn’t have the necessary features.

Think of it this way – imagine a 4 bedroom home with 2.5 baths and a 1 car garage priced more like it has 5 bedrooms and a 2 car garage. The buyers who can afford it won’t look at it because it lacks the 5th bedroom, and the buyers who need 4 bedrooms won’t even see it because it is above their budget.

So what ends up happening? A series of price reductions follows and the opportunity to create competition for the property is squandered.

So what ends up happening? Buyer traffic is low and urgency is non-existent. Typically, a series of price reductions follows and the opportunity to create competition for the property is squandered.

Multiple Offers Means Competition … and Possibly, Escalation

As a seller, the goal is always to have multiple offers submitted on your property – the competition amongst the buyers generates a really good price and seller friendly terms.

12 offers on one house. Do you think the seller got some friendly terms?

Competition amongst the buyers generates a really good price and seller friendly terms.

In many of the hotter markets, a multiple offer scenario generally means that several of the offers will contain an ‘Escalation Clause.’  An escalation clause basically says that the offering price will rise to the level of the next highest offer and then exceed it by a stated amount.

So when you have multiple offers with escalation clauses, they end up creating their own little auction. More often than not, competing escalation clauses drive the offers not just above the asking price, but substantially above the asking price.

Remember, Offers Contain a Price AND Terms 

When it comes to making (or accepting) an offer on a piece of real estate, the contract that binds the buyer and seller contains about 2 paragraphs on price, but another 10 pages that discusses the terms. Financing terms, inspection times, personal property, contingencies, title, settlement dates, possession dates, closing costs — all of these items (and more) are a part of the purchase agreement and can drastically change the overall value of the contract.

[ You can read a lot more about writing winning contracts here ]

While you may not think about an inspection and its impact on price, when the buyer is willing to absorb the first $5,000 of any inspection items found, a shrewd seller will understand how that clause alone can impact the proceeds that they are likely to receive.

In other words, it is always about more than just price and knowing how to create the pressure on the buyer to offer the best price AND terms, is critical in maximizing the value in the offer.

Summary

Creating a bidding war is not possible in all scenarios. Properties that are unique or highly priced have a limited buyer pool and creating enough competition to cause a bidding war is difficult.

Don’t let a price discourage competition for your home. Do everything you can to encourage it.

But in areas where buyers are prevalent and inventory low, competition should be leveraged. A property that is both priced correctly and marketed correctly (as well as in pristine condition) will will result in a competitive scenario. And a good agent can help you not only find the perfect price to get multiple parties interested, but bring it to the market in such a way that all interested parties feel compelled to act immediately.

When the market competes, you not only get the best possible price, but you also get far more favorable terms.

Don’t let a price discourage competition for your home. Do everything you can to encourage it.

Why July Defines One South Realty Group

August 5, 2018 By Rick Jarvis

I will always have a soft spot in my heart for July.

My wife is a July baby.
My oldest daughter was born in July.
5 years ago, in July, we moved from our old office into our brand new renovated office in the Fan.

And ten years ago in July, we should have gone out of business.

Before the Bubble

In case you don’t remember, 2008 was the year everything changed for the real estate market. The economy that began to really gain speed in the early 2000’s still seemed to be robust, and though we were beginning to see some weakness at the upper price points, development was healthy and opportunities were all around us.

In the last half of 2007, we had made the decision to open One South. We saw an opportunity for a more progressive brokerage that had both a residential and commercial aspect to it. Everyone thought we were crazy. Perhaps we were; or perhaps just crazy enough to make it work.

We were actively recruiting, making hires, finalizing logos, and doing all of those tasks that you do when you are opening a company.

We were equal parts optimistic and oblivious.

One South is Born

So on January 2, 2008, we opened the doors and went to work. Our new signs went up on properties, our logo was proudly displayed on Main Street, and the Realtor community was asking ‘Who are these guys and where in the heck did they come from?!’

For the first 6 months of the year, we went gangbusters. We had convinced some really great agents to come over and were making a bigger splash faster than I would ever dreamed possible.

We represented numerous redevelopment projects — The Emrick Flats, The Reserve, Tribeca Brownstones, the Cary Mews, and the Marshall Street Bakery — and had quickly developed a reputation as the go-to city development folks. It was a great position to be in.

And then it happened: we had a purchaser of one of our condo units get their loan denied for no real reason. It was 2008 and the middle of July. And for the first time, I sensed that something was bad was happening and it was bigger than we could imagine.

July of 2008

When you are a Realtor in the spring, you are busy.
When you are a Realtor in the spring trying to sell and recruit, manage, market, hire, and grow, you are really busy. And you are aren’t really paying attention to the nightly news and the reports of rising defaults in the subprime sections of mortgage.

So when, on July 30th of 2008, former President Bush signed the Housing and Economic Recovery Act that gave the Treasury Department the ability to prop up a collapsing banking industry, it was the first inkling that this wasn’t a blip on the radar but rather, a long and cold winter was coming.

For a company as small as ours, with no history and little working capital, we had big problems on our hands.

We Were Lucky, and Good

Maybe it was fate, maybe it was intelligence, or maybe a little of both, but we had aligned ourselves with smart people and smart bankers. We all recognized that we needed to figure out the best way to get our collective exposure down and get the unsold units we were marketing sold and sold fast. And if Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were not going to make loans, we needed to figure out a way.

We worked together. Price adjustments, creative incentives, some good hard nosed selling, and a dogged determination to succeed got us through and even earned us several new engagements. We developed a bit of a playbook for solving problematic projects (that we still use today) and earned the equivalent of a PhD in mortgage finance.

Slowly but surely, we managed to maintain growth despite a market that lost 30-50% of its value and a Realtor population that dropped by nearly the same amount by the end of 2011.

July of 2013

But by 2012, we could feel the change coming.

Inventory levels were falling. Prices were leveling out. Banks were coming out of receivership.

We decided to double down on ourselves and started looking for our next home. In December of 2012, we were able to secure 2314 W Main Street, the old Kicker’s HQ, known to all for the soccer player murals on the side of the building and construction began.

7 months later, in July of 2013, the renovation was complete and we took possession of a 8,000 SF mixed use industrial chic renovation in Richmond’s Fan District.

It was a proud moment and a testament to how far we had come.

July of 2018

We recently had an event in our space to celebrate One South’s 10th birthday. We invited many of our architect, contractor and developer clients who had allowed us to help them dream and execute their vision through the creation of new housing.

And in doing so, it gave us time to reflect back on what we had done in our first decade:

  • We opened with 5 agents and 1 staff member. We now are basically 100 agents and staff in two locations.
  • We sold a little over $20M in real estate in our first year. Last year we sold over $200M in real estate.
  • When we opened, we had 4 projects we represented. That count now exceeds 30.
  • Maybe 5% of our business came from the commercial side in 2008. We now have about 35% of our business come from our rapidly growing commercial team, including two $20M+ sales this year.
  • And finally, we have been named in Richmond Biz Sense’s RVA 25 for the past two consecutive years as one of Richmond’s fastest growing firms (the only real estate brokerage to make it back to back!)

July of 2028

So as we prepare for fall of 2018 (is it really August already?) and continue to fight the inventory shortage, we are full steam ahead.

We continue to work on creating a better experience for our clients and our agents, and to grow our own knowledge and capabilities. The real estate market is ever changing and the minute you think you have it figured out, you find yourself playing catch up.

We can’t wait to write the July update in 2028.

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I think all salespeople, as we age, tend to do more of our selling by telling stories and using analogies than we did when we got started.  Call it experience or call it wisdom (or just call it being old,) but the ability to take a current situation and compare it to a universally recognized feeling …

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