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iBuying

January 5, 2019 By Rick Jarvis

handshake hello GIF by Laurène Boglio
Our computer would like to purchase your home.

Ever heard of iBuying? If you haven’t, you can say you heard about it here, first, because it is the newest trend in real estate sales and it is on the way to a market near you –– probably.

So what exactly is iBuying? Well, no one definition exists but generally speaking, iBuying is nothing more than a company (or fund) that buys houses from people directly –– at some amount of discount –– for cash, and typically with a quick closing.

iBuying, in effect, replaces the traditional method of an individual owner putting a sign in the yard and selling to an individual purchaser at a market price.

How Does it Work?

2001 a space odyssey GIF
I’m sorry, Dave. I can’t value your home.

In most cases, the owner of a home will go to an iBuyer website, enter information about their home, and wait for the iBuyer to tell them what they would be willing to pay. The iBuyer company will look at its valuation algorithm and make the seller an offer.

Each iBuyer has a slightly different method, but typically, the offer comes with a mandatory site visit from some representative to verify the condition of the property and the features, size, etc. and to make sure that the information given by the seller is accurate.

If everything checks out, the offer can be accepted and closing will occur quickly and for cash.

Yes, it can be that simple.

The Premise (ok, ‘The Catch’)

The catch is this –- the offers come with a discount.

The iBuyer will use an algorithm that establishes likely market value, but then subtracts the cost of commissions, any required repair money, some carrying cost, and a little bit for profit.

But even if the offers are discounted, they are all cash and come with a quick closing.

The thought is that the offer will be close enough to what a typical seller would net on the sale of their home and, thus, the seller take less to avoid the hassle of the selling process –– and to have the certainty of knowing their home is sold.

i want out house GIF by South Park
Sometimes, iBuying makes sense.

In effect, if the seller believes the ‘hassle to discount’ ratio is in their favor, then they should (in theory) accept the offer. If not, then they can sell via the traditional process.

It is a fascinating idea and one that is taking hold in several markets.

The Players

the wave dancing GIF

There are several national players who are attempting to scale this business as we speak –– Zillow Offers being the most notable, but there are others. Knock, OfferPad and OpenDoor are making a lot of noise, while Redfin and a few other brokerages have either launched or are launching their own version of an iBuying program.

And aside from the behemoths mentioned above, local franchised versions also exist –– ’We Buy Ugly Houses’ and Homvestors are forms of iBuying as well, although couched in a more of an opportunistic wrapper. 

Heck, even some local investors (typically tied to a local brokerage) have established funds to do roughly the same thing. 

The Game

Ok, before you go out and rejoice, thinking that you can trick a computer into making you an above-market offer on your 7 bedroom 1 bath Elvis Pressly themed home that is in need of $50,000 of siding and roof repair, that is not how it works. 

graceland GIF

The national iBuyers have what is called a ‘Buy Box’ to determine which properties qualify to be purchased. Typically, the ‘Buy Box’ will only include properties that their algorithms can value with a high degree of confidence –– and shy away from the ones that they cannot. 

iBuyers will also tend to shy away from thin market segments (i.e. luxury housing) where pricing means fewer buyers and longer marketing times.

So the typical Buy Box will include properties that are newer, more homogenous, less expensive, and otherwise easier to peg a value accurately. Properties that are older, historic, have unique features, are expensive, in need of massive repairs, or are otherwise difficult to determine a fair value for will fall outside of the Buy Box and not qualify for an offer. 

So don’t get too excited about an iBuyer coming in and taking your problem property off of your hands at a premium –– they won’t.

Uses and Models

iBuying has applications for sure –– mostly for cases where ‘certainty’ is required or where other factors prevent the home from transferring via conventional means. 

  • If you are a contingent buyer trying to upgrade into a hot market segment, it might make sense to use an iBuyer to sell your home so that you can qualify for the next one
  • If showing your home repeatedly is burdensome, then selling to an iBuyer makes sense
  • If you are in need of selling quickly to take a new job, or move to another market, iBuying might also make sense

But in cases where the seller can wait, or where bidding wars are likely to occur, an iBuyer really isn’t necessary.

The Real Uses

So do you know why Zillow really wants to have an iBuyer platform? And Redfin? And the others?

GIF by The Paley Center for Media

Leads.

A seller inquiring about the value of their home is nothing more than a potential seller raising their hand and identifying themselves as a potential client –– and for any brokerage, that has tremendous value.

So even if the offer is rejected, the lead can still be referred to an agent in the iBuyer network for a referral fee.

Kinda brilliant, isn’t it? You bet it is.

Successful?

The iBuying idea is still rather new and thus, the concepts have not been fully developed and the numbers being reported are not vetted. 

https://www.slideshare.net/MikeDelPrete/phoenix-ibuyer-report-teaser
Phoenix is one of the primary testing grounds for iBuying.

A recent article claimed that iBuying represented as much as 3% of the accepted offers in markets where they were operating, but that is largely a self-reported number (as well as a self-serving one) so it remains to be seen. 

But even if the iBuyer does not buy in a large number of homes, the leads generated are still of great value to the Realtor community. So for iBuying to be successful, it doesn’t have to just monetize the homes they purchase –– it has to monetize the leads it generates.

Richmond and iBuying

The big players aren’t in Richmond in force, but they are somewhat close (Raleigh, NC) and in some parts of Charlotte.

The closest iBuyer markets are in North Carolina, but no markets in the northeast are in operation.

Some locals are playing in the space here locally, but no one of any real scale.

And since Richmond is an old city with aged housing stock, the likelihood that any iBuying platform would identify Richmond as a target-rich market is low. When you look at the map above, you see no iBuyer presence in the older housing markets of the northeast.

But that said, at some point, we will see some version of the iBuying model enter our market. 

Questions Abound

So stay tuned, there are still many questions to be answered.

suspicious thinking GIF by SpongeBob SquarePants
Hmmm …
  • One of the biggest is ‘what will iBuyers do with the homes they buy?’ Some will simply resell them and others will employ a buy and hold strategy. If that happens, will it put even more pressure on inventory?
  • The other question is how will iBuying impact appraisals? If the nearest and most recent comparable sale was an iBuyer sale at a 10% discount, will that impact the value of the surrounding properties?
  • What happens when iBuyers compete with one another? Will the competition between iBuyers squeeze the profits out of the model to such a point that they exit the market?
  • What if an iBuyer ends up with enough inventory that it can act like CarMax and offer trade-in options? Supposedly, that idea is being discussed.
  • Lastly, if and when the market goes through an adjustment, are iBuyers going to be willing to purchase assets that are declining in value? Just ask developers and builders what happened to their balance sheets in 2008 – 2012 and how much fun it was to hold onto housing when it was going down in value by 10% a year for 3 straight years? Hopefully, that adjustment is nowhere near, but most felt that way in the years leading up to the recession, too.

I don’t think anyone has the answers yet.

Summary

The iBuying idea has merit, but there is a lot still to be determined.

That said, the key point is that there is a lot of money backing these firms so the iBuying model is going to be here until someone figures it out.

Like a hammer or a lawnmower, iBuying is nothing more than a tool and it has its specific uses. Learning how to use the tool properly will come with time and practice for all involved.

Having a choice is never a bad thing for the consumer and iBuying will provide the public options that they didn’t have before. 

How Much Does $1 Cost? A Critique of Real Estate Commissions

August 28, 2018 By Rick Jarvis

How much would you pay for one dollar?

No, it isn’t a trick question. And no, I am not looking for a finance major to explain time value of money or fungibility or another economic argument about scarcity, risk, or inflation.

Seriously, how much would you pay?

The answer is (wait for it) $1.

So What is 3% Worth?

Now, let’s take the same argument to the real estate world — how much would you pay for 3%?

When you decide you want to purchase a home and you enlist the help of a buyer’s agent, more often than not, the buyer’s agent will be paid roughly 3% of the transaction in the form of a commission. (Disclaimer: Commissions vary by property and company. This post is in no way an attempt to state that 3% is an industry standard.)

“Rarely does the 3% cost of the service equal the value provided by the agent.”

As a purchaser, you don’t really feel it, since the commission is typically paid from the seller’s proceeds. The commission line item is on the seller’s side of the ledger and feels far more onerous to the seller than it does the purchaser.

But I can safely say this: Rarely does the 3% cost of the service equal the value provided by the agent.

Cost Doesn’t Equal Value

So imagine a world where every product or service was the same price. Would you drive a Hyundai or a Mercedes? Would you eat McDonalds or Ruth’s Chris? Would you shop at WalMart or Nordstrom?

The answers are pretty obvious.

“Do you think that the quality of the advice matters – especially when all advice costs the same?”

But when it comes to working with Realtor, every agent costs essentially the same. So why not use the opportunity to choose the best one?

Wouldn’t you like to work with an agent who knows the value difference between a warrantable and non warrantable condo and the impact on property values? Or what about an agent who can demonstrate the 3 year appreciation rate difference between North Church Hill and Bon Air. Or could tell you at what point the marketing times spike and seller discount doubles in the Lee Davis High School district? Or James River High School?

Do you think that the quality of the advice matters – especially when all advice costs the same?

Meryl Streep or Lindsay Lohan

Warren Buffett said it best: “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”

Very few industries operate where price and value have as little correlation as real estate sales – and for the shrewd client, this disconnect presents opportunity. Each and every buyer has the opportunity to work with the Realtor equivalent of LeBron James for the same price as J.R. Smith (sorry Cavalier fans, too soon?)

So spend some time researching your Realtor. It is the one place in life where you really have the opportunity to drink Dom Perignon for the same price as Budweiser.

How to Start a Bidding War

August 5, 2018 By Rick Jarvis

Asking Price Means Everything and Nothing at All

Question — of the last 1,500 sales in the City of Richmond, do you know how many closed exactly at the asking price?

Answer — only 268!

So basically, 6 out of 7 times, the price paid and the price asked were not the same. I sincerely doubt that there is any other industry that operates this way.

Our Expectations

If you think about it, what does price really mean in real estate, anyway? According to the numbers above, 82% of the time, price only serves as a mere suggestion and offers no guarantee that what you want for your home is what you will get for your home. As a matter of a fact, there is a 43% chance you might actually get more, if you price it correctly.

For the astute seller, that can be a huge advantage.

When we go to the grocery store, we don’t negotiate for a price of milk. And when we go to the mall, we don’t negotiate the price of a pair of jeans.

So why then, does the asking price for a home and the closing price so rarely equal one another? Because each home is unique and that makes the market highly imperfect.

What Auctioneers Know

For the astute seller, that can be a huge advantage.

I once had the pleasure of watching an auctioneer analyze a potential purchase of unsold condos in a project that was struggling. Their company specialized in buying large swaths of unsold properties at a discount, and then reselling them using advanced auction techniques that drove pricing back up to a level where it earned a tidy profit for their company.

If I can get three (or more) people in the same room that want the same thing, then I get above market value and I get the most seller friendly terms.

It was the following statement that resonated with me — ‘If I can get two people in the same room that want the same thing, I always get market value for the asset. But if I can three (or more) people in the same room that want the same thing, then I get above market value and I get the most seller friendly terms.’

It was a remarkably simple and powerful observation.

Price Determines Behavior

Far too often I have seen sellers use the logic that pricing a property high gives them room to negotiate down and still receive their best net price.

What ends up happening when a home is priced above its value:

  • The people who need to see their house never end up seeing it because they feel that they cannot afford it.
  • The people who can afford it aren’t interested because the home doesn’t have the necessary features.

Think of it this way – imagine a 4 bedroom home with 2.5 baths and a 1 car garage priced more like it has 5 bedrooms and a 2 car garage. The buyers who can afford it won’t look at it because it lacks the 5th bedroom, and the buyers who need 4 bedrooms won’t even see it because it is above their budget.

So what ends up happening? A series of price reductions follows and the opportunity to create competition for the property is squandered.

So what ends up happening? Buyer traffic is low and urgency is non-existent. Typically, a series of price reductions follows and the opportunity to create competition for the property is squandered.

Multiple Offers Means Competition … and Possibly, Escalation

As a seller, the goal is always to have multiple offers submitted on your property – the competition amongst the buyers generates a really good price and seller friendly terms.

12 offers on one house. Do you think the seller got some friendly terms?

Competition amongst the buyers generates a really good price and seller friendly terms.

In many of the hotter markets, a multiple offer scenario generally means that several of the offers will contain an ‘Escalation Clause.’  An escalation clause basically says that the offering price will rise to the level of the next highest offer and then exceed it by a stated amount.

So when you have multiple offers with escalation clauses, they end up creating their own little auction. More often than not, competing escalation clauses drive the offers not just above the asking price, but substantially above the asking price.

Remember, Offers Contain a Price AND Terms 

When it comes to making (or accepting) an offer on a piece of real estate, the contract that binds the buyer and seller contains about 2 paragraphs on price, but another 10 pages that discusses the terms. Financing terms, inspection times, personal property, contingencies, title, settlement dates, possession dates, closing costs — all of these items (and more) are a part of the purchase agreement and can drastically change the overall value of the contract.

[ You can read a lot more about writing winning contracts here ]

While you may not think about an inspection and its impact on price, when the buyer is willing to absorb the first $5,000 of any inspection items found, a shrewd seller will understand how that clause alone can impact the proceeds that they are likely to receive.

In other words, it is always about more than just price and knowing how to create the pressure on the buyer to offer the best price AND terms, is critical in maximizing the value in the offer.

Summary

Creating a bidding war is not possible in all scenarios. Properties that are unique or highly priced have a limited buyer pool and creating enough competition to cause a bidding war is difficult.

Don’t let a price discourage competition for your home. Do everything you can to encourage it.

But in areas where buyers are prevalent and inventory low, competition should be leveraged. A property that is both priced correctly and marketed correctly (as well as in pristine condition) will will result in a competitive scenario. And a good agent can help you not only find the perfect price to get multiple parties interested, but bring it to the market in such a way that all interested parties feel compelled to act immediately.

When the market competes, you not only get the best possible price, but you also get far more favorable terms.

Don’t let a price discourage competition for your home. Do everything you can to encourage it.

It’s Okay to Pay More

June 26, 2018 By Rick Jarvis

I know it sounds like it goes against everything in your core. Real estate is negotiable and a good deal means a big discount. Right?

butting heads

Well, that is not necessarily true any more.

Price is Not Value

The price of anything — a house, a car, a gallon of milk — is the owner’s estimate of what they think their product can command.

But the value is what the market is actually willing to pay.

Ask yourself this: If every house on the market was simply labelled as ‘available’ with no set price, how would you, as a buyer, behave? In this market, that might be the best way to think about it.

Musical Chairs, Sorta …

Do you remember the game of musical chairs — where there is always one more person than there are chairs. Well, instead of ten people and nine chairs, imagine the game with ten people and one chair.

This is what the market has become. It’s a ridiculous comparison, of course, but it applies. Low supply and high demand means prices rise — and right now, the supply of homes has never been lower.

Show Me the Numbers

The fact there is an inventory shortage is pretty well known. The issue is very few understand how extreme it has become.

Check out how much the market has changed:

  • In May of 2008, there were 11,000 homes on the market and 1,200 under contract (a 9 to 1 ratio.)
  • By May of 2011, there were 8,800 homes on the market with 1,200 under contract (a 7.3 to 1 ratio)
  • By May of 2017, the numbers were 3,800 and 2,300. The ratio had fallen to a never before seen 1.65 to 1.
  • And now in March of 2018, 3,000 and 2,100 is where we stand for a ‘you have got to be kidding me’ ratio of 1.42 to 1.

And when you look at some of the mature urban markets, especially those that are supposedly affordable, those markets have actually inverted with more houses under contract than there are homes available!

Per the chart above, the Museum District and Windsor Farms area has only one house for every three buyers! (April 2018 shows 18 active listings vs. 56 pending sales.)

Competition is fierce, to say the least.

There is No Fix

Here’s the bad news, there really isn’t a fix.

For one, we are not going to build our way out of this problem.

Housing can only be built (in any substantial quantity) in areas where there aren’t already houses. In other words, the only place we can build houses is in the outer suburbs — further and further away from the urban core. And for many, what is quickly becoming a 40 or 50 minute commute simply isn’t an option.

On top of that, the price of home building materials has never been higher and the labor pool has never been smaller, resulting in correspondingly large cost increase in new construction.

Two, owners where houses are few and far between are electing to simply stay put. Why? Because once you sell a home, you have to go buy another one – and why would any seller in their right mind sell their home only to have to go and buy another one in this crazy market? Especially if they have a 3% 30 year mortgage and their equity is rising as rapidly as it is?

The situation we are in is going to be here for quite some time.

The Lesson — Don’t Mistake Tactics for Strategies

The decision to buy or sell is a strategic one. But how you buy or sell is a tactical one.

Paying over asking price does not mean you or your agent is a bad negotiator — nor does waiving inspections, or appraisals, or offering rent-backs (provided you are not putting yourself in financial danger!) All it means is that you are doing what you can to secure an asset that is in demand.
We get it, the inventory crisis is causing some of the most extreme market conditions in history, which is unnerving to navigate. And yes, we fully acknowledge that it takes a time or two to really figure out what you need to do to win.

But just know that the smartest people in any room want to own the most valuable assets available and will do what it takes to secure them. And for the best houses in the best neighborhoods, there is going to be intense competition. You have got to come correct if you want to win the battle.

I know it is difficult to hear, but today’s market doesn’t resemble the markets of the past – even the very recent past. Make sure to adjust yesterday’s strategies to today’s conditions and don’t mistake paying asking price or above with a poor decision.

You Can’t Always Get What You Want

June 24, 2017 By Rick Jarvis

So you decided to put your home on the market.

You did everything you were supposed to in order to get it ready:

  • you pre-inspected it and fixed everything you should have
  • you decluttered and staged
  • you painted
  • you steam cleaned carpets
  • you planted annuals and put down a ton of fresh mulch
  • you put away that vase your mother gave you that (quite frankly) is just ugly
  • and you even priced it below Zillow’s estimate…

And 60 days later, your house is still on the market.

What happened?!? Let’s discuss.

You Are Looking at Comps Incorrectly

We like to say that 'Using comps to price your home is like driving while looking in the rear view mirror. It tells you where you have been, but not where you are going...

So what, exactly, is a comp?

A comp, in real estate vernacular, is a ‘comparable’ sale — and the primary way that housing values are determined.

When attempting to determine the most likely value of a home, buyers, sellers, appraisers and just about everyone else looks at sales of the most similar houses, in the most similar locations, with the most similar features, that occurred most recently.

But what is it, really? A comp is nothing more than a data point that gives you an indication of where the market was, and not where it necessarily is currently. Just because a buyer acted in a certain way in the recent past does not mean that the next buyer will act similarly. All buyers have different motivations and constraints, and are faced with a different set of choices when it comes to making a decision (i.e. — different houses to choose from, different commute, different familial status, different down payment amount, etc).

So comps are nothing more than data that can be used to help determine a price, but in no way do they set the market.

One Comp vs All of the Comps

One comp is a data point. Numerous comps show a trend.

If I had to pinpoint the most common mistake that sellers make when they look at comps, is that they pick out the one comp that makes their home seem the most valuable — and use that single high comp as the entire logic for their pricing strategy.

Let me let you in on a secret, the buyer is doing the exact opposite.

And let me let you in on another secret, both are wrong.

At the end of the day, the market value for the home will depend not on the comps, but on the current market conditions. If there are more buyers than there are sellers, then the higher comp is probably closer to the truth. When there are more sellers than buyers, then the opposite is true.

Seasonality. Seasonality. Seasonality.

The seasonality of the market is a huge input to values.

The recent spring seasons have become increasingly insane and the buying public comes out in force and buys up everything from early March through May. By summer, things slow a bit and the inventory conditions tend to either level out or invert as we head into the second half of the year.


The chart below shows the way absorption ebbs and flows over the course of a year. Do you notice a pattern? We have written ad nauseam about the seasonality of sales. If you want to read more, you can here


So when a house is marketed, will have as much, if not more, to do with its price than what the comps say. Don’t expect a spring comparable sale to accurately predict fall values.

Quantifying the Unquantifiable

A well known sales guru once said that 'The market is never kind, but it is always correct and will tell you everything you need to know...

So the comps are telling one story, but you have been on the market 60 days and no offers.

What to do?

Obviously, a change needs to be made. It might be a price change — or it might be a change is the overall offering.

A good agent can read tea leaves and essentially make recommendations based on the overall number of showings, the frequency of repeat showings and the feedback received after the showings.

Furthermore, a good agent will take a look at available inventory, as well as historical absorption in your price point and geography, and combine it with the anecdotal data (feedback) to recommend the correct strategy. Sometimes the strategy is a price cut, and other times it might a tweak to the offering such as a allowance for new carpet, granite tops or other improvement that the feedback has indicated is an issue in the mind of the market.

Summary

The market’s willingness to pay you a certain price is based on far more inputs than just past sales...

Sellers tend to look at comps and expect the past to perfectly predict the future. I’m sorry, it doesn’t work that way.

Remember, the market is incapable of lying — it objectively tells you everything you need to know. Just because the comps indicate one thing, the market’s willingness to pay you a certain price is based on far more inputs than just past sales.

If you are not getting the offers you feel you should, it is not necessarily your agent’s fault — it is the market telling you that there are better values in the marketplace than yours and that your potential buyers are electing to pursue other (better) values.

The market is never kind, but it is always correct, and will tell you everything you need to know — provided you are willing to listen. Those who maximize value from housing fully understand that statement.

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From the Blog

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Uncertainty

I have never met someone who loves uncertainty. Making decisions under pressure, not having the luxury of all of the facts, guessing about the future  –– these are all unnerving feelings. But they are all a part of every real estate transaction. Guess what I do for a living? I am a …

[Read More...] about Uncertainty

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