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Assessments, Appraisals and Zestimates

July 5, 2014 By Rick Jarvis

Why is the assessment so high (or low)? Why does Zillow say my house is worth so little (or so much)? Is that the same as my home’s Market Value? And why is the appraisal different from the assessment?

It can be confusing to say the least.

Agents are asked a version of this question with regularity and often, time does not allow us to fully explore the subtleties of the answer.  The summary answer is that each ‘valuation’ is estimating a different value, using differing data and for differing purposes.

Market Value (or Fair Market Value)

iStock_000000808927Small
Wall Street seeks to measure Fair Market Value of almost everything imaginable…

Any discussion of the different valuations begins with the definition of Fair Market Value (FMV).   Fair Market Value is the measurement which most closely reflects the value of the asset at any given point in time.  The simplest definition of FMV is: the price at which both a rational buyer and a seller would exchange the asset neither under undue pressure.

Two key points to remember :

  • FMV is established by the market
  • FMV measures a specific moment in time

Stated differently, FMV is NOT established by a third party at a point in the PAST.  While there may be additional interested parties to the transaction other than the buyer and seller (lender, mortgage insurer, title company, assessor’s office), they are not the ones who set the FMV.  FMV is set by the market and all other valuations SHOULD be driven by this fact.

Alas, it is not always so.  FMV is under attack by the other parties in the transaction and in order to make an informed decision, a buyer or seller needs to understand the intent of each of the other forms of valuation.

Below begins a discussion of the other common valuations and how they are established.

The Assessment (Tax Assessment)

Want to go down to City Hall to protest your assessment?  Here is where...
Want to go down to City Hall to protest your assessment? Here is where you go…

Each year, property owners get a piece of paper from their local City (or Town) Hall asking them to remit payment to the treasurer for their property tax.  We all open the bill with curiosity to see where our ‘assessment’ is and generally, it is met with a grunt, nod or gasp.  Sometimes we feel it is so egregiously incorrect we place a call to the local assessor’s office to argue that the value is either too high (meaning you are paying too much in tax) or too low (meaning that you wish to pay more in tax…not sure I understand why people wish to argue their values UP, but I digress…)  Regardless, the assessment value is what your property tax bill is based on.

Now, how is the assessment established?  Much like Realtors, assessors use a combination of factors including size, age, beds, baths and location, as well as sales price of other ‘similar’ properties…and establish a value.  A city or county does not have to be right, they just have to be ‘close enough.’  In reality, the perfect assessment is one which generates the most revenue without making its residents vehemently complain.  As the actual bill is computed by taking the tax RATE and multiplying it by the tax ASSESSMENT, so a county is better off to lower assessments and up the rate…which they do with regularity.

So how accurate are assessments?  A word that comes to mind is ‘somewhat.’  The assessment uses the least current information (tax assessments are generally adjusted on an annual or bi-annual basis) and it uses the least accurate information.  Since the assessment department does not see the information in MLS and rarely (if ever) visits the home, an assessors office will likely not know if a home has been improved or unfinished areas are completed (think 3rd floor or basement.)  The assessors office will likely not know (or really care) about the condition of a property (unless it is in need of condemnation) or if deferred maintenance has been kept up with and if the grass is cut regularly…despite all of these factors impacting FMV.

Accuracy Level – 85% at best and generally below the FMV, unless the market is falling dramatically.

Want to see what an appraisal looks like?
Want to see what an appraisal looks like?

The Appraisal

If you have recently gone through the purchase process and used a mortgage as a part of your purchase, you are familiar with the appraisal.

So what is an Appraisal?  An appraisal is a valuation process required by almost every lending institution when a buyer is using debt (a mortgage or loan) to purchase a home.

It goes like this – a bank contracts a professional appraiser to examine the property and offer an unbiased opinion the value.  An appraiser (generally) has access to the most accurate information (MLS data), the most recent sales and actually visits the property to confirm measurements and condition.  (*** It should be noted that appraisers are licensed and required to attend continuing professional education and many seek additional designations in order to help value more and more complex properties.  In addition, all appraisers use standardized forms to help guide the process ***)

How do appraisers establish values?  While the appraisal process notes the three primary methods of valuation (comparable sales, income approach and replacement cost) the comparable sales method is the most common when establishing value of single family homes.  It is the job of the appraiser to compare the subject property to 3 of the most applicable (and recent) sales in the immediate marketplace and make adjustments for any differences.  Simply put, an appraisal on a 5 bedroom home in Salisbury should be compared to other 5 bedroom homes of similar size and age in Salisbury with small adjustments for differing features (garage size, lot size, new roof, etc.)  The houses being used for comparison purposes should be substantially similar…thus the term ‘COMPARABLE sales.’

What is the purpose of the appraisal?  The appraisal is used by the bank or mortgage company to establish the maximum loan amount.  Typically, the effective interest rate increases (and this is a gross over-simplification) the more debt is applied to the value of the home.  Stated differently (and another incredibly gross over-simplification), a bank might give you an interest rate of 5% if the loan is 80% of the value of the home but closer to 6% if the loan is 90% of the home’s value.  The bank uses the appraisal (and NOT THE SALES PRICE) to establish the ‘loan to value’ ratio for the home.  If the appraisal is less than the sales price, then either (and alert, my last gross over-simplification is coming) the buyer must make a bigger down payment or accept the higher rate.  Needless to say, a great deal hinges on the appraisal, especially when maximum loan amounts are sought, and many deals have failed to consummate due to an appraisal coming in lower than the sales price.

Then how do appraisals differ from FMV?  In many minds (including appraisers, underwriters AND many Realtors) an appraisal and FMV are one and the same…which is unfortunate.  An appraisal is measuring value at a past point of time to establish a value in the present under the assumption past and present market conditions are effectively constant.  Using recent history as an example, the rapidly accelerating (or decelerating) markets of spring 2013 (or summer of 2008), the appraisers were being asked to value properties whose values were literally shifting several percentage points each month and thus, no longer accurate.

And remember, the appraiser did not see what the buyer saw during their home selection process.  A buyer can easily look at 20 homes during their search and select the best option given the available homes at the time.  The appraisal seeks to compare the subject decision to one made during a different time period and by different people who saw an entirely different set of homes.  Far too little attention is paid to this hugely important fact.

Real_Estate_Market_Statistics_for_Zip_Code_Report___RBI
This chart shows median sales price in 23220. Do you think that a sale closed in January can be used to measure the value of a property contracted during May?

Regardless of the arguments presented above, the appraisal is USUALLY accurate enough (in most instances) and while not perfect, is probably the most accurate of the measurements of Fair Market Value.

Accuracy Level – 95-98%

The Zestimate (or other Automated Valuation Models…sometimes called AVM’s)

Zillow buries their accuracy charts deep in their site but they can be found
Zillow buries their accuracy charts deep in their site but they can be found if you know where to look…or by clicking here.

A lot has been written about the issues with Zillow’s estimate of value. They are far from the accurate estimates the market feels they are.

In Henrico County, for example, Zillow offers the following disclaimer – a Zestimate of $400,000 means a computer in Palo Alto has estimated that the ultimate sales price be +10% in 64% of the cases.  The other 36% of the time, the value is less accurate than that.

Use the Zestimate at your own risk.

Accuracy Level – see the chart that Zillow publishes

Summary

If there is any takeaway from this post, it is the measurements of value are all measuring different things for different parties.  Do not mistake any of the varied measurements for FMV.  If you and your agent take the time to do the correct homework and to structure the search correctly, then the correct outcome will occur.  Before you allow a Zestimate or Assessment to cloud your view of  a home you are considering, take a good look at the methods used to establish the valuation and ask yourself who is doing the measuring and how they came to their conclusion.  If you do your own homework and strive to understand the forces that drive the market, your own estimate will be far more valuable than anyone else’s.

The Evolution of a Buyer

February 9, 2014 By Rick Jarvis

iStock_000000995347Small
Darwin, obviously…

The word ‘evolution‘ is generally defined by a sense of growth or improvement over time. Living things evolve, as do more theoretical things, such as ideas, processes, societies and technology. Evolution surrounds us.

Applied to real estate, the concept of evolution is most apparent in the stages of growth the best buyers go through on their quest to buy a home.

How Do Buyers Evolve?

It is important to begin with the following statement – the market that exists today has not been seen since approximately 1994 and the home buying experience of the period of 2003-2012 has almost zero resemblance to the buying experience of today.  The importance of this cannot be understated and as soon as a buyer understands that what they remember about buying a home 5-10 years ago (or more) will offer little value to the process of home buying today.  Even the buying experience from as little as a few years ago differs radically from that of today.  The current market has inventory conditions tighter than any period in modern history and the Dodd-Frank Act has permanently altered the mortgage markets in ways we are still discovering.

Evolutionary Stage One | All of the Good Cheap Houses Sold in 2009 and 10 

When the market rolled over, demand for housing stopped before production ceased.  Effectively, the lag time between when everyone realized the magnitude of what was happening and when nail guns fell silent, meant that we continued to produce homes at an incredible pace for an additional 6-9 months despite demand falling to almost zero.  The US created roughly 2 million new homes in 2007.  By 2009, we built less than 500,000.

FacebookNeedless to say, the production which continued created an incredible overhang of quality inventory that the market was forced to absorb prior to it resetting itself.  This overhang, many times brand new or recently built (and many times now owned by the local banks), provided a plethora of quality housing available for sale at steep discounts well into 2011.  Additionally, special financing options were used to move excess property from the bank balance sheet into the hands of individual buyers.

As prices began to stabilize, largely due to the absorption of this inventory, the buying public began to show up to buy, only to find out that the 20-30% discount on great home was no longer an option.

Evolutionary Stage Two | Every House I am Interested in Sells Before I Can Get to It

I believe each Realtor somehow knew that when the market turned, it would turn quickly (the inventory graph below tells the story better than any words ever could.)

Market values by 2010 were as far below trend as the values had been above trend in 2007.  By 2015, the same conditions which drove the market to its heights (far too much demand for the existing supply) were about to occur again, albeit for a different reason (far too little inventory for the existing demand).  The spring markets of the last several years brought bidding wars, multiple contracts and escalation clauses (all hallmarks of 2006/7) in many sub-markets of Richmond.  The conditions are unlike to change as building has still not caught up with demand and ‘quality’ don’t sit around long, especially in mature neighborhoods.

Expecting to be able to take your time and sit on your decision for several days will result in lost opportunity.

Evolutionary Stage Three | Every Contract Price Seems to Be Higher than I Expect!

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If you drive while looking out your mirrors, you just might not being paying attention to what is in front of you.

Appraisals, assessments and Trulia/Zillow estimates are all driven by comparable sales.  Comparable sales are PAST events and represent where we WERE and not where we ARE.   If you are exclusively using events from the past to drive current decisions, your estimates of value will feel low relative to the actual market values.  While this may feel slightly disconcerting, the same statement can be said during the free fall of the market in 2009 (albeit in the exact reverse) meaning everyone felt as if they were making great below market deals, only to find out the market was falling faster than they realized.  Past events are helpful in establishing where we have been…use them for that purpose.

Evolutionary Stage Four – Every Seller (and/or listing agent) is Becoming Unrealistic Again

Denial of reasonable repair requests, refusal to renegotiate when appraisals miss, ‘shopping’ contracts, missed deadlines for response, pocket listings … they are all starting to occur again.  When response times are not honored, contract agreements ignored or other behaviors designed to extract value after the fact, buyers become frustrated and decision making becomes poor.  Just remember, when the market was flipped, buyer behaviors exhibited in 2009/10 were exactly the same.  When one side of the market has an extreme upper hand, they will act accordingly.

When you are buying into a tight market, expect these behaviors.  Being surprised or frustrated by questionable seller behaviors is a recipe to miss the bigger picture.

Evolutionary Stage Five – Trulia and Zillow are Total Crapshoots and Cannot be Trusted, Despite Some Really Great Commercials

Data_Coverage_and_Rent_Zestimate_Accuracy_-_Zillow
In their best markets, Zillow can only estimate the FMV of a $300,000 home within $30k about half the time…

In 2009, Trulia and Zillow were nothing more than websites with funny names.  This is no longer the case.

Today, T/Z (unfortunately) represent the housing gospel in many folk’s minds and thus (poorly) impact many buyer and seller decisions.  It is one of the most unfortunate developments in our industry in the past 5 years.  Simply put, the data that T/Z use is not accurate and thus, their estimates of value are poor (I am being kind) and inventory they represent as available is questionably accurate.

For reasons I am not entirely sure I understand, many feel that a computer in either Seattle or San Francisco knows more about the market than those locals who live it and breathe it daily.  T/Z, are amazing technological achievements and offer some great tools, it is just that which they do most poorly (value estimates and availability) is what they tout as their best features.

If you wish to rely on T/Z to help you buy a home, I wish you the best of luck.

Evolutionary Stage Six – Appraisers and Underwriting Departments are Petrified of Mistakes Thanks to Dodd-Frank

Business_Latest__Dodd-Frank_fail___MSNBC-2
Markets hate uncertainty and Dodd-Frank offers it in droves.

The Dodd-Frank Consumer Protection Act is another classic example of government intervention negatively impacting the market it was created to protect.  Dodd Frank increased regulation, capped compensation to lenders, decreased product choices and created additional bureaucracy. It has effectively slowed the market and increased the cost of administration.  It was also enacted well after the financial crisis had occurred and largely repaired itself.

In the short run, the act has created an atmosphere where decision makers are waiting for legal precedent to guide their actions (think ‘lawsuits’.)  Even several years after passing the law, only half of the over 400 new rules created under the act have been finalized…The level of uncertainty created by Dodd-Frank is staggering.  Currently, those in the mortgage business have little guidance and therefore, decision making is stiflingly slow and conservative.  Any loan which does not fit nicely into the proscribed box (think ‘most every loan’) represents an unnecessary challenge.

Evolutionary Summary

At the end of the day, the evolution one must go through has more to do with understanding market conditions than anything else. The past 5-7 years has brought about monumental shifts in values, processes and inputs unprecedented in any time in history.  Failure to recognize not only the difference in the process, but the impact of the differences will lead to failure.

Nothing about today’s home buying bears any resemblance to the past and those who seek to compare the two are destined to struggle.

 

Yesterday, Today or Tomorrow…Which Matters Most?

January 24, 2014 By Rick Jarvis

iStock_000026526264Large_jpgAs the snow melts, the flowers begin to bloom and the birds (and bugs) emerge, so do For Sale signs. The spring market is when the large number of homes in our marketplace will transact. Sometimes it is January and sometimes March, but once the weather breaks and summer vacation seems almost reachable, the buyers and sellers emerge and begin their mating dance to see who sells what to whom and for how much.

It will happen again this year.

It happens every year (well, except 2009, but that is a different story.)

So we know houses will change hands…but for how much?  That is the question everyone wants to know.

Valuing Housing

What Realtors are taught about helping sellers establish values has not changed in the several decades I have been in this industry.  We were/are taught to find three recent sales which are similar in size, features age and geography and use some blended average to establish a price.  The sales upon which the value is based are called COMPS (short for ‘COMParable Sales) and can be found by searching in the local MLS or public tax records.

But does it work?

Comping Looks Backwards

What is the flaw in looking at COMPS?

Well, COMPS are past events and what we are trying to predict is a future one.  Additionally, these past sales, even if recent, may still have occurred in radically different market conditions.

See the chart below measuring the rate of sales each month.  Do you notice any trends?

When the rate of sales in April/May is 30-40% higher than October/November, do you think it would be wise to use fall sales to price a spring house?  Probably not.

Likewise, check this out. This chart shows the amount of available housing at any given point during the year.

A buyer will have significantly more choices in October than in April…think it impacts a buyer’s behavior?  You bet.

(For additional market statistics showing Days on Market, Median Prices and Ask/Sale Ratio, visit our page on STATS)

Don’t Ignore Seasonality

While no one knows what the future holds, you can look to repeating patterns in the data to help guide you.  If your best comp is an October sale and you are listing your home in March, be more aggressive.  Also, do not expect to have the results of April if you are bringing you home to the market it September.

The bottom line is pricing is complex and cannot be distilled into a 3 home analysis.  Without looking at timing, you are making an important decision but basing it on incomplete information.

Where Are the Cranes?

December 28, 2013 By Rick Jarvis

One of the prettiest views of the Richmond skyline is as you approach the city from the south along 95.

You can see the skyline of Downtown, the James River, Manchester, Shockoe and Church Hill as well as a host of other areas from the I95 Bridge. It gives you a sense of what Richmond is and where it going.

I was returning from an appointment, coming back up 95 from Chester and something a friend said struck me … a few days prior, we were grabbing a bite to eat and talking about a condo he had recently purchased when he made the remark ‘I sure would feel more comfortable about Richmond if I saw a few more cranes.’

My mind had not really had a chance to properly digest that statement.

What Do Cranes Mean?

Counting cranes was not a way of measuring development I had heard before. He was implying that the number of cranes (or lack thereof) was a way of seeing the development activity within a Metro area. The more cranes you see, the more development must be occurring.

New construction in Richmond VA
More cranes = more business? Maybe not in Richmond…

So as I crossed the James River bridge on 95, I decided to count cranes – it did not take long. I could count 2. One was located near the MCV Campus and the other was along the Downtown Expressway near 4th street. I saw no others.

Despite knowing that the development momentum in Downtown Richmond was as strong as it ever had been, the lack of cranes seems to suggest otherwise. Was the development of Richmond lagging behind other Metro areas? Had the market recovery somehow skipped Richmond? Were we about to experience another downturn? Where were the cranes?!?!

Cranes Mean Height

The more I thought, the more I realized that Richmond has never really been a ‘crane town.’  Cranes imply NEW high rise development and the primary path for Richmond is that of RE-development. We RE-develop our buildings in lieu of tearing them down. We adaptively RE-use them and we RE-purpose them. We use the Historic Tax Credit programs to take that which is old and obsolete and bring it back to a new life. We take our warehouses and make them living spaces and turn gas stations into coffee shops. We take car dealerships and convert them into condos and remake call centers into grocery stores.

We are RE-builders as a city and that is a good thing, in my opinion. Redevelopment is greener, more responsible and far more interesting. It is the way we have rebuilt Richmond at a rate far faster than at anytime in our history and will be the reason that Richmond thrives in the coming years – and it does not require cranes.

But We Need to Learn

Richmond VA Warehouse Renovation
The stock of warehouses to renovate is dwindling rapidly in Richmond VA

That said, redevelopment at our current rate will begin to wane as we run out of the supply of historic properties. The rate at which we have repurposed the staggering number of warehouses in our urban core is amazing but will be ending soon as we simply run out of historic building stock.

Warehouse properties which used to be acquired at less than $15/SF are now selling above $40/SF and the number of blighted/abandoned/underutilized properties in Manchester, Shockoe and Scotts Addition are dwindling quickly. Many in the development community have already begun to expand into other cities and towns with historic districts and blighted properties. The tobacco towns of central North Carolina and the smaller towns of SW Virginia as well as the Tidewater area (Suffolk/Norfolk) have seen Richmond’s developers create presences.

While this is understandable, it is also unfortunate in that there is still much to do here.

New Costs More

The next frontier for development in Richmond is not a specific area or neighborhood, it is on the vacant blocks and crumbling surface parking that dot many different places within our city. Currently, incentives strongly encourage developers to redevelop historically and not to build new structures. The cost of ‘building new,’ due to these incentives for renovation of historic properties, is anywhere from 30-50% more expensive when all of the factors are accounted for.

Those who wish to build new structures have a significantly higher cost structure. The rental rates and market values are not high enough to make NEW construction viable in the eyes of lenders. No financing means no cranes.

Its Working, For Now …

So, for now, I am comfortable with only seeing two cranes mostly because I see happy people in places I have not seen them in years. I see more hardhats and dump trucks in neighborhoods where they never used to be and I can’t seem to get to all of the new restaurants that are opening.  I can’t find street parking as easily as I used to and I now see nostalgia overpower fear leading to a reemergence of some of Richmond’s most neglected architectural neighborhoods. The City of Richmond has a positive population trend for the first time in my lifetime and I think that is not just a good thing, but a great one.

Richmond in 2020 and beyond will need cranes and I just hope that those with the power to make a difference understand how they can help us transition to a bigger, better and more balanced Richmond as we move forward.

The Elevator Speech

May 6, 2013 By Rick Jarvis

Closed elevatorOK, we are on an elevator and you ask me what I do.

The following article is, more or less, a directory of the different 1 minute ‘elevator speeches’ for many of the common questions that I get asked.  The articles that you can click through go into more detail about the different topics that anyone thinking about buying or selling real estate in this market should understand.

  • Zillow and Trulia are the disruptive forces in our industry.  A buyer (and seller) absolutely NEEDS to understand how these sites operate.
  • The role of the BUYER’S AGENT is oft misunderstood and potential buyers lose valuable time and resources by not interviewing and involving a Buyer’s Agent earlier in the process.
  • Likewise, there is a lot more written about how to BUY a home than how to SELL one.  In these times of rapidly shifting prices and the unbalanced supply and demand relationship, pricing and negotiation strategies can vary widely within the Metro.  A good LISTING AGENT will understand how to interpret the information.
  • The CONDO folks also need to read this article.  If you are thinking of buying a condominium, you MUST (repeat – MUST) understand how the financing can both create and alleviate risk in the projects.
  • Despite a market that is returning to normal, we still get the FORECLOSURE question.  It may or may not be the right strategy but understanding more about how the ‘Foreclosure’ label affects the value goes a long way to helping buyers understand whether the potential reward is worth the risk.
  • Buying Luxury Housing in Richmond means knowing your history.

There are several other articles that are could serve as starting points such as ‘Spending $1MM‘ and ‘The Floors Tell the Story‘ and ‘Tell Me About Flipping Houses‘ but they are a bit more specific…would probably need to go from the Penthouse to Parking Level 8 and back again to really delve fully into those.

See you on the elevator.

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