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What Did It Sell For?

July 5, 2015 By Rick Jarvis

The ability to look into the future to see trends is pretty cool...
The ability to look into the future to see trends is pretty cool…

Early each spring, the trees begin to bud, the birds and squirrels begin to be seen with more and more regularity and the real estate market begins anew.  About the time the first day a short sleeved shirt seems appropriate, the pressure to decide whether to buy a home (or sell one) rises and everyone in the marketplace begins to look for clues about what pricing will do this year.  Soon, the buyers and sellers begin their oft-repeated mating ritual where each side tries to figure out how much, if at all, the pricing has advanced from last year.

The Multiple Listing Services (MLS) is the primary resource for housing information.  It records 95%+ of the residential transactions that occur in our marketplace and in doing so, gives us tremendous insight into how buyers valued properties.  That said, the transactions recorded by MLS have by their very nature occurred in the past and thus offer only a partial view of the future.

Looking into future in any industry is of great value.  It sure would be great if we could predict the future of real estate market, wouldn’t it?

Understanding MLS Statuses

While MLS allows for 9 different statuses which describe the availability of a specific property, there are generally 3 that matter most – ACTIVE, PENDING and SOLD.

  • ACTIVE means the property is currently available FOR SALE
  • PENDING means the property is UNDER CONTRACT between buyer and seller with agreed upon price and terms but has not transferred.  The terms of the sale are not public knowledge
  • SOLD means the property has TRANSFERRED and the price and terms are now public knowledge
The ability to search the MLS by status can provide valuable intel about where the market is and where it is heading
The ability to search the MLS by status can provide valuable intel about where the market is and where it is heading

The key difference is that the pending sale terms are not fully disclosed until the property closes.  So, in theory, little real intel can be gathered from a pending sale until it officially closes usually 45 – 90 days from the date it went under contract.

Or can it…

Sales are Seasonal

The seasonality of real estate is undeniable.

Each spring, the rate at which housing is absorbed begins to rise and continues to rise until reaching its peak sometime in the June/July time frame.  In most years, the number of sales recorded from January to June will represent roughly 60% of the sales of the entire year.  Furthermore, the 4 month period of March through June typically yields 40% or more of the entire year’s sales.

So, a large majority of the housing decisions made during the year are being made without the benefit of knowing the details of the sales in PENDING status.  But that does not mean that we cannot make some educated guesses.

What We Can Tell

In MLS, the only information that is entered when the status changes from active to pending is which agent sold it and on what day the contract was accepted.  So when the property pends, the number of days the property was marketed freezes allowing us to look at how long it took for the property to sell.  This statistic is called ‘Days on Market’ and measures the time between when the property was brought to the market and when it went under contract.

As one would expect, there is a correlation between the number of days it took the property to sell and the percentage of the asking price the seller received.  Using the last 12 months of sales between $400k and 800k in the Greater Richmond Metropolitan Region, you can see a trend develop:

sales_prices_huntts_row

The obvious conclusion is that the longer the amount of time the property spends on the market, the bigger discount a seller is forced to take.

Applying the Data

In a nutshell, if you are trying to look at MLS in March for guidance, you are not going to find many closed sales from the current year … they just haven’t happened yet. Being able to draw insight from the most current available data (the PENDING inventory) is incredibly helpful in creating winning strategies.  Using the chart above to guide your offer (or counter-offer) will help you understand the probable prices at which key sales will close.

The Magic of MLS

July 4, 2015 By Rick Jarvis

We love our Multiple Listing Service (MLS.)

In terms of importance, think of it this way – it is a curated database that has recorded in great detail upwards of 95% of the real estate transactions that have occurred in our marketplace dating back decades. The accuracy of the database is protected by spot checks, self-policing and stiff penalties for incorrect use (both accidental and intentional.)  I challenge anyone to find a more accurate database that is as all-enomcpassing as the local MLS.

iStock_000049986426_XXXLarge_jpg

Why MLS Matters

When you realize that the local MLS database helps guide millions of people in the acquisition and sale of what is typically one of the biggest, if not THE biggest assets in their portfolio, you begin to understand its importance.

[ Want a direct link to MLS?  Click here to learn how ] 

People tend to think of MLS in terms of letting Realtors know what is on the market and what has recently sold … which MLS does and does quite well.   But most don’t often consider what else it can tell us and how to use that knowledge to guide us.  The idea of ‘Big Data’ is entering its golden age as the software required to do first rate analysis of the data is becoming simultaneously cheaper and more powerful. It will not be long before SAS or IBM brings the capability to analyze large swaths of data to the layperson level and I, personally, can’t wait.

But until we can buy access to the software cheaply enough AND MLS allows unfettered access to the records (they currently have strict limits on downloads), the best we can do is use the existing tools in MLS to analyze smaller data sets to try to find answers to some really neat questions.

Below are some statistics that are easily computable in MLS, yet rarely used.

List Price to Sale Price Ratio (LP/SP)

The price a seller is asking for a home and the price it sells for is generally not equal.  In most markets, the seller and buyer negotiate a price that is below the asking price by some number.  In some instances (most commonly in the spring and in a highly sought-after market,) the price may get bid up above the original asking price if multiple offers are received.

Now the statistic itself, for most markets, tends to stay somewhere in the 94-98% range.  In the darkest days of 2009-11, we did see some instances of sub 90% LP/SP, but that is rare.  A general rule of thumb is that 3% below ask is a good number to model.

Now, many choose to use the LP/SP ratio when coming up with an offer OR when estimating their proceeds from a sale.  Both of these uses are legitimate and informative.

That said, the statistic delivers another very powerful message that is not oft-discussed.  Assuming for a minute that a buyer will generally negotiate up by roughly the same amount a seller will negotiate down, most offers will come in anywhere from 92 – 95% of the actual asking price.  This implies the asking price for a home must be within 8% of the actual value of the home in order to receive an offer.  Otherwise, the buyer is likely to focus on other homes for sale.

It is amazing the number of sellers who fail to realize that the practice of raising the price to allow for future concessions often times prevents them from receiving an offer.

Inventory

We spend a great deal of time at One South following the inventory in the marketplace.

Inventory levels matter.  The chart above shows the number of homes available relative to the number of homes being absorbed.  Inventory is measured in time (months) and effectively states that if no new homes were to come to the market, how long would we have, given the current rate of absorption, before we ran out of homes to buy.

In economic terms, buyers collectively act rationally.  Acting ‘rationally’ means they will be attracted to the best value available in any given marketplace.  The more options there are relative to the number of buyers in the market, the less power any individual seller has.  Often times, sellers tend to look to the past to price their home and pay little to no attention to current market conditions (we wrote an entire post on this exact topic here…) and almost always ignore the impact of seasonality.  Taking into account inventory makes for far better pricing (and negotiating) decisions.

Market Activity

One of my personal favorite metrics to track is the number of pending sales.  When a home is placed under contract, it is considered to be in ‘Pending’ status in MLS.  The rate of new pending inventory in a strong indicator of market activity.

The chart below includes the rate of closed sales as well as new pending sales.  As you can tell, the pending sales tend to occur anywhere from 45 – 60 days prior to closed sales.


Most national statistics track closed sales and in doing so, deliver reports on market conditions that lag the actual market conditions.  When we hear government sponsored statistics discussing market health, it can be misleading as the activity being reported is generally 3 – 4 months old.  Keeping an eye on the pending inventory will give you a far better picture of where your market stands currently.

Conclusion

We touched on a few of the easier but still insightful statistics.  But with just a little thought and some basic knowledge of how to download data, some amazing observations can be made.  We have helped our clients price some truly special properties and accurately predict buyer behaviors that would not be evident without some in-depth analysis.

MLS can help you find:

  • How much more buyers are willing to pay for a new home
  • How much less buyers are willing to pay for homes with clapboard siding than vinyl
  • How much of a discount or premium the market expects for different streets in the Fan
  • The impact of non-warrantable condo associations on values

Challenge your agent to deliver you real insight, not just ‘comps.’  MLS is a wonderful database and asking it the correct questions will yield some great intel.

 

How to Execute a Simultaneous Sale/Buy

July 3, 2015 By Rick Jarvis

So you want to buy a new home, eh? Great! We can help.
But you have a house to sell, too. Great! We can also help with that.
But you can’t buy the new home until you sell the existing one. Got it.
And you don’t want to settle for a new home that you don’t absolutely love. No sweat.
And you don’t want to move twice. Understood.
And you don’t have to move so if you don’t get what you want, you can just stay put. Noted.

buy and sellSelling and Buying at the Same Time

We hear these statements all of the time … and trust us, we really do understand.

As the market rebuilds itself and more and more people are getting back to a position where the value of their homes has recovered, we hear the aforementioned wishes more and more. But correctly executing the sale/buy transaction is harder than it sounds … and it is about to get harder. Likewise, one person’s best way might not be another’s best way. This is not a ‘one size fits all’ type of transaction.

Let’s look at what to consider.

Everyone is Different

First and foremost — no simple answer exists.

Everyone has a different view of financial risk, and thus, no one solution exists ...

If anyone has a single ironclad way of handling this scenario, I have yet to meet them. Not only is each situation unique, but everyone has a different view of financial risk. What may feel comfortable to one buyer may feel unnerving to another. The possible combination of factors – price, income, equity, interest rates, timing, distance (and many more) – makes recommending a single ‘step by step’ pathway both irresponsible and short-sighted.

At the end of the day, you need to consider many factors. By understanding the concepts and their risk/impact, you will give yourself a framework to help discover YOUR best path.

A Framework for Understanding

Remember, it is a portfolio decision, involving a buy AND a sale ...
First and foremost, you need to realize you are making a portfolio decision. The sale of a home and subsequent purchase of another is nothing more than rebalancing your overall financial picture, at least as it relates to housing, and decisions made on one side impact the other. These two seemingly independent events need to be considered in conjunction with one another and should not be separated. Many people want to look at the two transactions as independent of one another, but they are not.

Unless you are moving from one market to a completely different one or selling and moving into a long term rental, replacing one asset with another simultaneously means similar market conditions on both sides (with some exceptions, obviously.) If it is a seller’s market when you sell, it is when you buy. The reverse is also true. Don’t expect otherwise.


Months of Inventory – Richmond Region

For more information about market conditions, check out our STATS page


Pick a Side

One side of the transaction is more important than the other ...
That said, you have to recognize that one side of the transaction is more important than the other.

Typically, when trading up from the starter home to the 5 bedroom home that will take you through the next 20 years, the home you are buying is more important than the one you are selling.

Act accordingly.

Timing is Everything

The sale/buy is about precise timing.

A properly executed sale/buy means the execution of many complex things all at once – closing, funding the mortgages, payoffs, wire transfers and movers (to name a few.) Make sure your team (Realtor, lender, attorney) is not only experienced, but experienced in working with one another.

A missed date in a sale/buy can get incredibly expensive extremely quickly and guess what – you are the one who carries that risk.

Contingent? First Right?

Sellers in accelerating markets hate both ‘Contingent Contracts’ and contracts with a ‘Right of First Refusal.’  Being either a contingent buyer or first right buyer in most cases, means overpaying, and is a poor strategy.

More on this later.

Liquidity is Power

Many financial advisors have scared their clients by not understanding the housing implications of their advice ...
Liquid assets are your friend. 401k, stock accounts, home equity loans, other retirement funds … all of these have value either as collateral for a loan or in their ability to be turned into cash.

Make sure you fully understand the impact of accessing these assets (taxes, penalties, borrowing rates, vesting) before blindly refusing to use them. It should also be noted that many a financial advisor has scared clients by not understanding the housing implications of their advice. Asking your financial advisor is prudent, but filter that advice they give you.

Use Your Math Skills

Furthermore — remember it is a math problem.

Don't try to save $1,000 on one side to cost yourself $3,000 on the other side ...
Often, we hear clients say ‘well its too expensive to borrow against my 401k’ when in actuality, the cost of accessing assets like the 401k is far cheaper than the alternatives. Don’t try to save $1,000 dollars on one side and cost yourself $3,000 somewhere else. If liquidating a stock position makes you a stronger buyer, seriously consider it.

Use Your Strength

Likewise, the more strength you have as a buyer, the better deal you can drive.

Remember that an offer is a combination of price AND terms. Being a good buyer is more than just price. Down payments, closing dates, inspection, appraisal and sale contingencies are all part of the contract and can make your offer more attractive than someone else’s in a competitive offer situation. The better the home you are buying, the more offers it will generate.

Vet Your Lender

A good lender is a must.

The use of a non-local lender always costs more in the long run ...
If you use an internet lender or some other lender tied to your stock portfolio, money market account or insurance carrier, prepare to have a miserable and expensive experience. I cannot state this loudly enough – the use of a non-local lender will cost you substantially more in the long run. Do not worry about how great their incentives are to get you to use them, don’t do it. Nothing they can offer you will make up for the expense of missing the closing date on a simultaneous transaction. If you are talking to one now, hang up the phone, close your internet browser and step away. Non-Local lenders never ever ever work out. Never. Ever. Never. And, once again,  you are the one who loses, not them. If you take nothing else from this post, remember this point … please.

Penny Wise and Pound Foolish

Beware the tendency to be ‘Penny Wise and Pound Foolish.’

Many times I have seen a seller (who is under contract to buy) make a dangerous decision about an minor inspection item and put their own sale at risk. Buyers are still skittish and being too aggressive on a small item, regardless of how right you may be, means losing big in the end. If you have removed your own contingencies and spent money with your lender, inspectors, insurance broker and appraiser, losing the contract on your house over a small inspection item will feel incredibly foolish in hindsight. Be extremely careful about everything you do that can give your buyer an out when trying to execute the simultaneous transaction.

Do Your Homework BEFORE it is Due

Speed is critical, and so is market knowledge.

Do your homework, get prepared and rehearse!
Minimizing the time between when you find the perfect house, get it under contract and have yours on the market minimizes your risk. Knowing the market means immediately recognizing a good deal and being prepared to act gives you the greatest chance for success. Do your homework, get prepared and rehearse.

  • Keep your home ‘show ready,’ even if not on the market
  • Get pre-approved, not just pre-qualified, and keep it updated
  • Have the ability to go see a newly listed home within 24 hours
  • Be ready to pull the trigger and negotiate quickly
  • Have your team ready and understand the costs

Expect Competition

Expect the best listings to have multiple offers and prepare accordingly ...
In a market starved for inventory, your value as a buyer is far less.

Don’t expect the new listing in the perfect neighborhood to negotiate price much (if any) and don’t be surprised if there are multiple offers. As a matter of a fact, expect the best listings to have multiple offers and prepare accordingly. And the more you lallygag with making an offer, the more competitive offers will magically appear.

Wait or Act?  You Decide …

Waiting makes ‘Trading Up’ more expensive. The long term prognosis for both interest rates and home pricing is heading up. If you are moving up, then waiting until the home you are selling appreciates some more (probably) means buying a more expensive home at a higher interest rate. Yes, your $200,000 home might go up by 5%, but so did the $500,000 home you want to buy. Do the math.

Get Housed Right!

Do not discount the cost of being ‘Housed Incorrectly.’

If a recent job change has created a 90 minute commute or a change in familial status means you have too much (or too little) space, it causes stress. The impact being in a house that no longer fits is not without actual cost or mental/emotional cost. The creation of unnecessary stress and expense is unwise.

Accept the Idea of Moving Twice

Be prepared to move twice.

No one wants to hear this but know that making a decision about your next 10 to 20 years is worth a short term rental or week in a hotel. No one makes their best decision when they are under pressure. Removing the ‘I refuse to move twice’ condition from decision means more and better options as well as a stronger bargaining position. Buying a home that does not fully fit so you didn’t have to move twice means going through the process again … how big of a pain would that be?  Not only would be a big pain, it would be an expensive one, too. If moving twice gets it right, do it.

The Sale/Buy is Harder than Ever!

Similarly, the ability to execute a simultaneous buy/sale is about to change and may force you to move twice.

The implementation of the CFPB’s mandated new closing protocol will occur in late 2015 and change how closings are handled. Many of the changes create timing issues that are going to impact the ability to close consecutive transactions. The old way is no more and the protections that are now built in on the buyer’s behalf takes away about half of the flexibility to correctly execute the simultaneous buy/sell. For sell/buys using highly leveraged mortgages, or closings where multiple people are executing simultaneous buy/sells (think of a long line of dominos,) it will be even harder.

Plan B

Have a backup plan in place.

Do you want the know the best way to lose big in a negotiation? Have no alternative, that’s how. Playing chicken with a lender, mover or builder gets awfully difficult when you have no backup. And know that the your lender, mover and/or builder plays the negotiation game every day … you might play it once every decade. They are better at it than you are.

The Use of Contingent and First Right Contracts

Above, we referenced the ‘Contingent Contract’ and ‘Right of First Refusal’ (ROFL) contracts. In theory, they make perfect sense.  In reality, they don’t get you what you want. Contingent contracts and ROFR rarely work.

First, a contingent contract effectively says to the seller – ‘I will buy your home when I sell mine.’ The seller takes their home off of the market and waits for the buyer’s home to sell. We very rarely recommend for our sellers to accept a contingent contract.  If we do, it is only with draconian constraints and penalties for non-performance by the purchaser. The idea of taking a salable home off of the market during the spring season is colossally stupid and thus, it should not be done without proper protection.

In a ROFL, the buyer effectively says to the seller – ‘I will buy your home when I sell mine, but you can still market the property. If someone else brings you a contract, then I will either figure out a way to buy it or step aside and let the next group buy it.’ Only in the rarest of scenarios do we recommend for a seller to accept a ROFR.

When the market is stout, like it is now, these contracts are basically worthless. A seller is looking for someone without a contingency so they they can get on with their move. In order for you to convince the seller to accept a contingent contract, you pretty much have to overpay to get them to accept your contract.

Similarly, if you are in a ROFR or contingent situation, you have to price your home aggressively or risk losing the property you want to buy. So you end up overpaying for the purchase and underselling on the sale. That is just dumb.

Either way, the contingent contract or the ROFR, the buyer usually pays more and receives less … I am not sure why people try to use these techniques.

Conclusion

At the end of the day, we recommend figuring out how to buy without the use of the contingent contract or ROFL. In this market, these contract structure present risk greater than the reward in almost every case.

If you cannot buy without selling, we recommend selling first and strongly considering the dreaded concept of moving twice. The position of strength you will gain by doing so will far outweigh the short term nuisance. If you can figure out a way to make the timing work, then great, but a temporary move lets you shop from a far stronger position.

And lastly, if you want to move once, make sure you can act quickly and have a backup plan in place, just in case. Know that in doing so, you are limiting your options and placing additional risk in the transaction.  The coming changes to closing practices are going to muck up the system tremendously and create chaos.  The financial penalties to lenders will make them even more cautious than they are currently and the idle moving trucks in your driveway is not their primary concern when faced with up to a $1M PER DAY fine.

Understanding the inherent risk in this type of transaction is key and hopefully, this article has brought to light the difficulty and danger in correctly navigating the simultaneous buy/sell.

Richmond VA Housing, By Decade

May 23, 2015 By Rick Jarvis

The new homes in Oak Park were inspired by Ginter Park neighborhood of the the 1920's and 30's.
The new homes in Oak Park were inspired by the Ginter Park neighborhood of the the early 20th Century

We recently received a request to create a page that grouped housing by decade.  We thought it was a good idea … at least in the 20th Century.

So here you go …

  • 1700’s
  • 1800’s
  • 1900-1909
  • 1910-1919
  • 1920-1929
  • 1930-1939
  • 1940-1949
  • 1950-1959
  • 1960-1969

 

Real Estate and Minivans, Sedans and Convertibles…and 2015, too.

December 30, 2014 By Rick Jarvis

I think all salespeople, as we age, tend to do more of our selling by telling stories and using analogies than we did when we got started.  Call it experience or call it wisdom (or just call it being old,) but the ability to take a current situation and compare it to a universally recognized feeling somehow makes it more real to our clients.  When you can take an odd situation and make it feel familiar, it helps the client feel at ease with their decision.  Familiarity begets comfort.

How does the market feel to you?
How does the market feel to you?

So recently I ran into an old friend at lunch who I do not see often. He owns a small business selling supplies to local restaurants and has been doing so for many years. Of course, he asked how the market was (all friends ask their Realtor buddies this question.)  I told him it was good (which is true) but I sure would love it if people felt a little more like they did in 2006 again. If it was 2006, we would be almost TOO busy (if there was such a thing) as our company had matured greatly since we opened and I wanted to see what we were capable of in the best of times.

I said I wanted the market to feel like they were all driving convertibles again. He looked at me and grinned as he knew exactly what I meant.

We All Drove Convertibles

From 2004-2008, the development market was booming.

The long neglected neighborhoods in Richmond were in the midst of a rebirth with condos, creative office spaces and apartments all being redeveloped at an astonishing pace. The banks were willing participants with (relatively) easy terms and a shared belief that the market was bulletproof.  Lending was based as much on  momentum as anything else. The development community was ripe with opportunity and the developers had both the skill and capacity to really execute projects. The Richmond we knew in 1995 looked nothing like the one in 2005.  It was one of the most amazing transformations I had ever seen in a 10 year period.

The best analogy was it felt like we were driving a convertible on a sunny day with no clouds and a slight breeze with the radio (or CD, or XM, or iPod) playing our favorite tunes over and over.  It was a good time.

Driving in a Downpour

And then a few raindrops began to appear.

While there were hints of the coming changes as far back as the summer of 2007, the definitive marker for the bursting of the bubble came in September 2008 with the announcement Lehman Brothers had collapsed.  By early 2009, all of the feelings of being bulletproof and carefree disappeared into thin air.

iStock_000014573155Large_jpg

Beginning in late 2007, and continuing well into 2011, banks decided the best way to stay in business was by NOT loaning money.  New home buyers disappeared completely and subsequently, droves of sellers decided to hand their keys back to the mortgage companies which had given them loans only a few years earlier.  No one wanted to make a decision, especially not one with any risk attached to it, and the market froze.  With no loans, there were no transactions and with no transactions, values plummeted.

Sticking with the driving analogy, we had gone from (in 2006) driving a convertible along the beach without a care in the world to (in 2009) driving an old minivan in a downpour, in the dark, on an unfamiliar curvy road somehow knowing that the bridge ahead was probably already washed out.

I don’t think anyone wants to live through that economy again.

Driving Home From Work in April

As we enter 2015 the world has changed yet again.  It is better, for sure, but we are not back to where we were…and maybe that is a good thing…at least for a while.

For the last two consecutive spring markets, we have seen rapid absorption, price appreciation and a gradual relaxation of some lending standards.  The last two fall markets have been shakier.  Spring momentum of 2013 and 2014 stalled by the late summer and some of the gain of the first half were gone by the end of the year.  While other current economic standards (oil, stocks and bonds, employment, inflation) all seem to be in pretty good places, no one will mistake 2015 for 2006.  Alas, it is no 2011 either, and that is okay by me.

The bottom line is we are now in a place where buyers and sellers can make plans based on expectations rooted in realistic probabilities. And while we have not returned to a market where the inputs (new housing, interest rates, development) are back to pre-recession levels, they are on the way back to normalizing themselves.  With normal inputs comes stability and with stability comes predictability.  At the end of the day, words like ‘predictable’ and ‘stable’ are good words for real estate.

Driving home to turn on the grill is never a bad thing, is it?
Driving home to turn on the grill is never a bad thing, is it?

To use the driving home analogy a final time, imagine driving home from a good day of work on that first warm day of spring.  It may be a bit chilly to roll the windows down, but you so anyway.  And while you darted out a few minutes early from work, you still didn’t miss all of the traffic (and even hit a pothole or two) but it somehow seems okay after living through the ride on the curvy road in the rain.  And despite the fact the days are not perfect (yet), you know summer is coming and with it grilling outside with friends, family and familiar faces all in good moods ready to enjoy life for awhile.

The drive in 2015 is less about the car and more about the attitude.  Lets all sit back and enjoy the ride, whether in a VW Beetle, Dodge Stratus, Mustang GT or Maserati Quattroporte…

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From the Blog

You’re Gonna Be Mad at Us…

You are about to get really mad at your Realtor ... and your lender ... and your attorney. And you know what?  It isn't our fault. Beginning in late 2015/early 2016, the way real estate transactions are closed will change and change substantially.  Since becoming licensed in the early 1990's, …

[Read More...] about You’re Gonna Be Mad at Us…

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