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The Emerging Desperation in Buying

January 30, 2017 By Rick Jarvis

In the past several springs, the market was pretty insane — full price offers in hours, multiple contracts, bidding wars — and do you know what? It is coming again.

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While an insane spring market is not overly noteworthy (the springs are always busy), it is the intensity of the insanity that is worth mentioning.

And it’s getting worse.

The inventory issue

This is the least balanced market since the 2008 - 2010 market, albeit in the reverse ...

Each of the past three years, the market seems to begin earlier and become more focused on the months of February through May. See the chart below and look at how much of the transactional volume is being done in the front half of the year.

And then notice how each spring has gotten worse. In April 2014, 1,700 contracts were accepted by sellers. In April 2016, the number jumped to nearly 2,300 — which is an increase of 35% in a two year span.

Okay, so we’re expecting more people to buy earlier this year than last. Whats the big deal, you ask?

Well, when you layer on the inventory issue, demonstrated in the chart below, the issue comes into focus more clearly.

The bottom line is that substantially more people are buying, but there are substantially fewer houses to go around.

The number of people seeking housing in a market becoming increasingly starved of options is contributing to our least balanced market since 2008 – 2010, with the exact opposite scenario.

Buyer desperation abounds

Recently, we have begun to see many more instances of home seekers running ads, canvasing communities, and otherwise announcing that they are looking for houses in specific neighborhoods and trying to intercept the home before it comes to market. I have heard of people looking for ANY indication of a potential listing (painting, landscaping, photographers, PODS, and even Realtors’ cars in the driveway) and soliciting sellers with offers in an attempt to find a home, especially in the most inventory constrained neighborhoods.

Personally, I think it is a dangerous development.

First, a disclaimer: I recognize that, as a Realtor, of course I would not like to hear about buyers going directly to sellers to purchase homes. So anything I say from here needs to be filtered by the fact that I am an agent and any ‘agentless’ transaction undermines my existence. 

A word to sellers

Disclaimer aside, instances where a buyer directly approaches an unrepresented seller, especially in a hot neighborhood, and pays anywhere near market value are pretty much non-existent. The entire reason that a buyer is walking around and trying to find a home to buy is that they don’t want to pay market value for the home and are trying to intercept the home before it becomes publicly available.

The same competitive pressure that drives price also drives terms...

Don’t anticipate that the value you can command for your home has been set yet. It has not. When exposed properly and demand enhanced (as all good agents know how to do), you will get at least market value for your home, if not more. Selling a home before exposing it to the market leaves money on the table.

It is also important to note that your typical residential contract has about 3 paragraphs dedicated to price and about 10 pages dedicated to terms. The terms of a contract are hugely important in shifting risk from one side to the other. A contract with a good price and weak terms is not a good contract. The same competitive pressure that drives price also drives terms.

Yes, the allure of selling your home direct and saving the commission are strong, but the savings are fool’s gold when compared to a properly marketed home where competition is high.

A word to buyers

Well over 90% of the homes that are transacted flow through MLS ...

As a buyer, when you don’t involve an agent, you risk of missing the largest source of homes for sale; the MLS. Does the MLS have every available home in it? No. But by most counts, well over 90% of the homes that are transacted flow through MLS and alienating those who curate housing availability information (Realtors) is a poor strategy.

As an agent, when I know that a buyer is also attempting to go direct to a seller and not include me, I will reallocate my time to finding housing for clients who have officially engaged me in a formal advocacy role, and I am pretty sure I speak for my peers on this issue, too. Simply put, we’re going to work with those who want to work with us.

Buyers, you are more than welcome to approach sellers directly, but when you do, you cannot expect that the agent community will put you in front of the clients with which they are formally engaged.

We are frustrated, too …

If ever there was a time to involve a pro, it is now...

There are many more reasons over and above the ones discussed above — lending best practices, client-friendly contract structures, appraisal management — but we will save those for a later date.

Just to be clear, I am not arrogant enough to suggest that if you don’t use a Realtor, something bad will happen. Frankly, going direct might work for both parties. But the likelihood of a positive outcome is far lower than the tried and true, century old method of transacting a home.

As agents, we fully recognize the extreme market conditions. And much like yourselves, we are as frustrated with the inability to make the perfect home appear as much as you are. But if ever there was a time to involve a pro, it is now.

Being able to secure the perfect home involves using all of the existing resources and databases, especially given today’s skewed balance. Find an agent who is diligent, hustles, and understands how to write a winning offer in a competitive offer situation, and you will have found the best way to navigate the market conditions that will define the 2017 spring season.

We Are Moving!

January 29, 2017 By Rick Jarvis

OK — we’re moving.

It has been over a decade since the last time we moved — which for us, has been an eternity.

google_maps

For those of you who know our history, we used to be serial movers. From 1995 to 2003, we owned and lived in 5 different homes in various areas around town. We’ve built two, renovated two and bought one just like it was.

Perhaps it was ease, or perhaps we craved the stability or perhaps life just got too busy to move, but for whatever reason, we have stayed put in our current home longer than at any point in our lives.

But now it is time to move as 2 of 3 kids are in/soon to be in college and our preferences have changed.

How Did We Do?

And so as we are spending some time renovating our new home (on 13 acres, mind you!), we are reflecting back on the decisions we made when we built our current home.

Knowing what we know now and with the benefit of hindsight, how would we grade our decisions of a decade ago? I think we deserve an A minus — not too shabby.

What We Did Well

We maximized our space, for sure, and in efficient ways.

When we built, we added an unfinished basement and an unfinished third floor — both of which we eventually finished to add more space for our growing family. The extra space has been probably the primary reason we were able to stay in place for so long.

We also chose a somewhat subdued exterior elevation, at least relative to those that surround us, that I think has aged well. The residential architecture look of the early 2000’s was largely ‘transitional’ (think — ‘contemporary colonial’ with an open interior layout.) Hopefully, by choosing a less polarizing exterior, our appeal will be more universal when the ‘For Sale’ sign goes in the front yard.

I also think we did a good job on the interior plan, too. Our plan is open and flexible. And while it does have a rarely used living and dining area, these rooms are a relatively small percentage of the overall first floor space.

What We Did OK

Our lot is larger than the average lot in our neighborhood and on a cul-de-sac, but it is oddly shaped. I think we could have done a better job of clearing the lot because it makes our oversized lot seem a bit smaller than it actually is.

The powder room is centrally located, not tucked away. I think a powder room that is a little more private is preferable.

And while we added a mudroom that was not on the original plans, it turned out we used it far more than we would have ever anticipated. If we had a time machine, we would make the mudroom about 2x the size we actually did.

What We Wish We Could Do Over

We missed on having a pedestrian door in the garage, and that has been a bit of a pain — wished we would have thought of that during construction.

And while we have a screened porch, it is elevated as our lot has some slope. The ability to engage our backyard is a bit challenged and if we had to do it over again, we would create a better relationship with the back yard.

Final Grades

So when we look back at our choices, I think we did pretty well, especially considering that life is inherently unpredictable and what you think you think is not necessarily how everything will all work out.

The home has served us nicely for over a decade and not been a burden on us financially. The public schools in our section of town are highly rated and we feel our children have been served well by the schools.

And as agents who travel the entire Richmond Metro constantly, the I95/I295 Interchange has made our varied and random travel patterns minimally impactful to our lives. So we not only have enjoyed the home itself, but its location proved to be perfectly suited to our lifestyle.

Would we make some changes to what we did if given the chance to do over again? Yes. But by and large, our 2017 selves would congratulate our 2004 selves quite hardily.

Market Caps

October 26, 2016 By Rick Jarvis

marketcaps‘Too big for the street.’
‘Overbuilding.’
‘The white elephant.’

All of these terms are a way of describing a home that somehow is out of place from a value perspective. Perhaps it is too nice or perhaps too big — but the home exceeds what the market would be willing to pay for it based on its location.

What is a Market Cap?

Imagine a neighborhood of modest vinyl sided 2,000 SF two story homes with 1 car garages whose average sales price is $300,000. And then imagine you see a 4,000 SF 5 bedroom home, made of brick, with exotic hard wood floors, central vacuum, pool and hot tub and a 3 car garage sitting right in the middle. Do you think that the brick home will sell for $600,000? I doubt it.

A market cap is nothing more than a price above which people are unwilling to pay in a certain area — regardless of how good the deal may appear or how many features the home may have. Generally, the egregious violations of the market cap concept are relatively easy to spot — as in the example above.

But finding market caps can become far more difficult when you are looking at infill opportunities or substantial renovations.

How Do You Find a Cap?

Finding market caps is as much art as it is science, but if you know how to look, spotting caps can become relatively easy.

The Multiple Listing Service (MLS) tracks all sorts of statistics — from home size, age, features and materials to a tremendous amount of data about geography, prices and marketing times — and we can use the data to look for radical changes in behavior.

Take a look at the chart below — when you plot the marketing times for houses against the % of asking price that sellers receive in the Lee Davis High School District, you see radical changes in buyer behavior above $500,000. Both marketing times spike and % of ask plummet — effectively saying that the market is substantially less willing to pay more than $500,000 to live in this area of town. And when you creep above $600k, the resistance is even more pronounced.

 

Lets compare Lee Davis to Midlothian High School — you see a gradual softening in demand become far more pronounced in the middle $500’s.

And finally, to Deep Run High School — you see pretty consistent demand until you reach the $700k mark — at which point demand begins to soften.

 

As you can see, geography influences caps. Each area has a price above which buyers are hesitant to pay and it can be found by looking for sharp departures in market behavior.

Why Do Caps Matter?

Using the examples above —

  • Would I buy a home for $800k in the Lee Davis HS District? Not if I knew I might need to sell it quickly or in the near future.
  • Would I feel comfortable with spending $200,000 on a renovation on home in Salisbury (Midlothian) that I bought for $400,000? Probably …
  • If I were a builder, would I build 10 new $1M speculative homes in the Deep Run HS District? Nope.

At the end of the day, we all need to be cognizant of where caps exist, if for no other reason than to protect our investment. Just because the home will appraise or just because the ‘per foot’ value seems to be in line does not mean the market will agree when it comes time to put the For Sale sign in the front yard.

Be aware.

The Making of an American Farmhouse — Walnut Hill, Rockville VA

September 5, 2016 By Rick Jarvis

Periodically, you get smitten with a neighborhood, and Walnut Hill in the Rockville area of Western Hanover County tends to have that effect on people.

Walnut Hill is pretty close to what most are envisioning when they imagine a classic neighborhood in a rural setting. With extremely large lot sizes (most are between 8 and 25 acres) and the kind of gently rolling topography that brings to mind the picturesque farmland in the foothills of Western VA, the Walnut Hill neighborhood perfectly captures the imagery of what rural Americana should be.

Walnut Hill

If you have not been to Walnut Hill, you should go.

The neighborhood is a testament to the developer – they resisted the urge to take the path of least resistance and try to wedge as many lots as possible onto the site. By NOT trying to create maximum density, they ended up creating incredible spacing throughout the community that allows differing architectural styles to coexist peacefully with one another.

Walnut Hill does not ‘demand’ a specific style or size. Rather, it lets the land dictate the home. Within the neighborhood as it stands today, you see mostly traditional residential architectural forms (variations on colonial styles along with some ‘craftsman’ influences) and generally a quality material palette ensuring enduring physical structures. I think that any good design is cognizant of its surroundings and should compliment the existing homes.

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Creating the Home on Paper

Deep within every Realtor is both a frustrated architect and would-be builder.

So when we were presented with the chance to work with a builder with decades of Richmond home building expertise, WB Garrett, on conceiving a home in Walnut Hill, we jumped at the opportunity. Being involved from such an early stage is every agent’s dream, and one we wanted to make sure we took seriously.

Effectively, we were engaged with the ultimate question of ‘what should we build?’ Not just from a price and size standpoint, but in all facets — from architectural style and aesthetic to features to materials.

Several ideas were tossed about, mostly relating to style, but the concept of the ‘New American Farmhouse,’ seemed to speak to each of us. Rather quickly, we all agreed that should be the direction. We recognized that even within traditional forms were variations and departures that could work, especially in such a bucolic rural setting, and thus we chose to craft a modern version of the American Farmhouse to pay respect to the setting as well as the surrounding homes, while still introducing what the market demands.

Walnut_Hill_Leasing_Plan_pdf__page_1_of_2_

Walnut_Hill_Leasing_Plan_pdf__page_2_of_2_

[ Download the Walnut Hill ‘Amercian Farmhouse’ Plan ]

So the team of home builder Bill Garrett of WB Garrett, Peter Fraser of 37 Ideas and Rick Jarvis, with One South Realty sat down and discussed the features and materials for such a home and with a little hope from our friend and film colleague, Kent Eanes, we were able to document the creation of the plan in such a way that will give the marketplace a peek behind the curtain of how homes go from ideas and concepts to paper and plans.

 

Using Realtor Recommendations

August 1, 2016 By Rick Jarvis

[ A quick note — the 2017 spring has been even more insane than last spring. In order to give yourself the best chance to purchase a home AND close on time, a team approach is required. Below we talk about the reasons why agents make recommendations for team members and why it matters. ]

cost benefit

Imagine this …

You are buying a home and it’s the day before closing. Everything is ready to go. Your stuff is totally packed, your movers are scheduled to be at your home first thing in the morning and the cleaning crew is coming soon afterwards. Your in-laws are (thankfully) lined up to take the kids (and the dog) so that you can direct traffic. The utilities are set to switch over and the cable company will be at the new home between noon and 3 (ok, noon and the following Tuesday) … everything is lined up.

And then the phone rings.

‘WHAT DO YOU MEAN the loan is still in underwriting and we may not close on Friday?!?!’
‘WHAT DO YOU MEAN there is a unreleased deed of trust from 2006 that was missed?!?’
‘WHAT DO YOU MEAN the closing statement is off by $29,000?!?’

In a panic, you call your agent who informs you that the internet lender you chose for your loan and your closing attorney (an old college roommate who specializes in divorce) cannot be reached — and there is nothing that can be done.

Are Agents in Cahoots with the People They Recommend?

So why would a client not use lenders and attorneys that the agent recommends?

Sometimes, the reasons are perfectly understandable. Corporate relocation packages might mandate the use of a specific lender or attorney. Other times, office politics or family relationships play a role.

Chris Owens at Southern Trust
Might want to give these guys a call. They are extremely good a delivering on time.

But in most cases, the main reason that clients do not take the Realtor recommendation is simply a lack of trust — ‘What is the agent getting for making this referral?’ is the prevailing thought. The public quite often feels that the relationship between agent and lender (or attorney or inspector) is designed to benefit the agent at the expense of the client.  

The perception that agents somehow make recommendations based on a kickback is as unfortunate as it is untrue.

Kickbacks are highly illegal in our industry.

RESPA is Your Friend

The public is largely unaware that the practice of Realtors being directly compensated for referring a customer to a lender (or other service provider) is a big no-no. The practice is known as a ‘kickback.’

Legally, Realtors, lenders, attorneys, title companies and home inspectors are all strictly prohibited from being directly compensated for referring business to another service provider. Stated differently, if every time I referred a loan to a lender, they sent me $100, we could both be fined, lose our license or even go to jail.

The Real Estate Settlement Protection Act (RESPA) spells this out in great detail and no agent, lender or attorney wants to be caught in the net of a RESPA violation.

So despite the public’s opinion to the contrary, the practice of ‘quid pro quo’ referrals is largely non-existent.

So What is Allowed?

Real estate service providers are allowed to enter into formal business relationships with other real estate service providers as long as they are legitimate business arrangements.

A common arrangement is for a lender (or title company) to lease space from a brokerage or an attorney in order to facilitate workflow. Putting the multiple necessary services to complete a transaction physically under the same roof both enhances communication and makes it easier for clients to obtain services in one location. Additionally, service providers can share expenses relating to marketing or technology in order to drive business opportunity or create efficiencies.

As long as the business reason is legitimate AND the referring of service is not compensated on a deal-by-deal basis AND the client is not being injured by the relationship, then it generally is deemed to be within REPSA compliance.

So Why Use Our Team?

The client spends money before the transaction closes that cannot be recaptured. No closing = lost money

When we say ‘you should call this lender’ or ‘ we recommend this attorney,’ we are saying it with the confidence that the recommendation will positively impact the transaction.

Here are the primary reasons why:

  • As a commissioned salesperson, my compensation is tied to the SUCCESSFUL transaction. Any and all of the work I do comes BEFORE I get paid. No closing = no payday. Why on earth would any agent risk a $10,000 commission check for $100 and the threat of legal action? I just don’t think anyone is that stupid.
  • Similarly, the client is spending money on the transaction before it closes, too. Deposits, inspections and appraisals (and sometimes rate locks and title searches) are all expenses that occur prior to closing. If closing does not occur, then the some (or all) of the money spent by the client is lost.

So when we make our recommendations we are protecting our own work and money in the same way we are protecting yours — our interest are aligned.

(A quick sidebar — I once had a client tell me that the only reason that I was recommending a specific lender was that ‘You just want the deal to close.’ I was actually too stunned to respond.)

Money is a Commodity, but a Financial Product is Not

‘There are horses for courses’ goes the old saying.

Banks not only offer different loan products, but they also differ in what they do well — and a Realtor’s recommendation should change based on the asset type, credit profile or income level. Each mortgage company typically offers the same Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and/or FHA products (and rates), but the other niche products (non-warrantable condo, construction/perms, HELOCs, Grant Programs, Doctor Loans) can vary widely from lender to lender. Furthermore, lenders often times underwrite to different standards (‘straight agency’ or ‘credit overlay’ are the terms used to describe this practice) and thus, some banks may be more aggressive for different types of buyer profiles.

It is also important to note that the way banks handle underwriting, closing and funding is also of great importance and having a lender headquartered in your time zone matters more than you know.

It is the agent’s job to know and make the correct introduction.

Missing is Expensive

I cannot stress this enough — a missed closing date is hugely expensive.

Do you know what happens when a closing date is missed — especially with little to no notice?

  • Rate locks expire
  • Contracts sometimes can be voided
  • Deposits sacrificed
  • Movers cancel or worse, begin to go into full extortion mode (and if you don’t believe me, read your agreement with your movers about ‘storing’ your stuff)
  • Hotel rooms might be required
  • And other financial penalties can be levied

And do you know who pays the penalty? Well, it isn’t the lender and it isn’t the agent, that’s for sure.

The party with the most to lose in the case of a missed closing date is the buyer. Look, if the house is vacant and the deal is cash, then a missed closing date is not a huge deal. But when the buyer and seller are all set to close in a sequence, and the first closing allows several more to happen down the line, the ability for a lender (and attorney, and title company) to deliver on time is of critical importance — because the one with the most to lose is almost always the buyer.

So How Do You Know Who to Recommend?

So how did we find the best service providers in the marketplace? Trial, error, experience, vetting, familiarity … all gained over 20+ years.

Since becoming licensed in the early 1990’s, we have largely used the same lender(s) and followed them through the numerous mergers and acquisitions that they endured in the volatile world of mortgage banking. Why? They are good at what they do. They don’t miss dates. They don’t tell a client that they can deliver a product or rate when they can’t. And they don’t employ bait and switch tactics. Having done this for as long as we have, we know who shoots straight (and who doesn’t) and we know who consistently delivers.

And furthermore, when we recommend a service provider, we are not only recommending the individual, but the organization. Our knowledge of the companies we recommend extends well above and below our primary contacts. We know the owners, the managers, the administrators and the processors so that when the inevitable hiccup occurs, we can often times go direct to the individual who can solve the problem.

Volume = Preference

All of the above notwithstanding — imagine the scenario at the beginning of the post.

A day before closing and a problem comes up, whose files are going to be worked on first? Is the lender or attorney going to work on the file of the agent who sent them one deal this year or the one who sent them 50? The answer is obvious. When last minute issues arise (and they ALWAYS do) service providers fully understand where their bread is buttered.

The volume we generate for our preferred partners creates an implied concierge service for our clients.

But Remember, You Are Free to Choose

Please understand that you are free to use whoever you choose to use. This post is in no way a mandate that you have to use who we recommend.

If your brother is an attorney and your father is a lender and they do hundreds of transactions in any given year, then yes, by all means, use them. But if you are unsure of their volume or if their real estate specialty is in the specific type of transaction you are conducting, beware.

When we make a recommendation, the only kickback we receive is great service for you. When our clients have a pleasant and efficient experience, everyone wins. So when a client takes our recommendation, it means they have the highest chance for their transaction that closes on time and on the money.

Without a doubt, the most troublesome deals are the ones where the buyer selected an online lender (or other inexperienced or incompetent service provider) and the deal went sideways at both a critical and expensive point. I wish I had a nickel for every time I’ve heard a client in a self-made pickle say, ‘I guess I should have used your guy.’

Seriously consider taking our recommendations — we are looking out for you more than you realize.

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How Do I Schedule a Showing or Find Out More?

I am Kendall C. Kendall, Client Care Coordinator for the team. I am a licensed Realtor and it is my job to answer questions and schedule showings for the properties shown on our sites. Here's our call policy.

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Working With Buyers

I am Sarah Jarvis, Broker at One South and I work with our buyers. I bring 20+ years of experience to our Buyers Advocacy program and take great pride in helping our clients understand the RVA marketplace.

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From the Blog

What Does A Buyer’s Agent Do?

A buyer's agent works for YOU when you buy a home. When we say 'works for YOU' we mean that it is YOUR interests that are the primary focus. While all agents are supposed to be on their best behavior when it comes to no lying, cheating or stealing, the difference between a BUYER'S Agent and a …

[Read More...] about What Does A Buyer’s Agent Do?

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