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Blog

Price or Terms – Which are More Important?

July 14, 2015 By Rick Jarvis

In the real estate business, the focus of almost every conversation is price.

‘How much are they asking for their house?’
‘What is the assessment?’
‘What does Zillow say it is worth?’
‘They paid WHAT?!?’
‘The offer is for HOW MUCH?!?!’

You never hear:

‘I can’t believe the rent back was for 3 days!’
‘The due diligence request was TOTALLY reasonable and allowed for the correct framework for agreement.’
‘Wow! What a shrewdly written escalator clause!’

Listen, the price a property transfers for is obviously important, but it is not the only part of making a good deal. Many other factors contribute to the making of a really great deal, other than what someone paid.

Price or Terms, You Decide

A real estate contract is made up of two things – the PRICE for the property and TERMS under which both sides must abide. It is the former that garners all of the attention but it is the latter that matters more in many cases.

Want to learn some tips about winning in the most intense season of the year? Click to learn more.

Look at it this way – how much space in the contract is dedicated to each aspect?

In Section 4 of Page 1 of the Richmond Association of Realtors Residential Purchase Agreement, you will find the following language discussing price:

“The purchase price of the property is __________, which shall be paid to the seller at settlement, subject to the prorations described herein…

The standard contract then goes on for another 8 pages to cover the other items that go along with the purchase of a home!

Just to clarify – the purchase price is handled with one sentence yet the rest of the contract is 8 pages long. And just so you realize, the contract is 8 pages BEFORE adding the required disclosures and any addenda.

Does that tell you anything?

Did you realize the ‘Standard Provisions’ alone run from A through K? Did you realize that Section #21 is labelled ‘Other Terms’ and is blank? Did you realize we can add as many addenda to the contract as we need to?

Wow.

Terms

The contract cover numerous bases:

  • Financing
  • Inspections
  • Title
  • Numerous Disclosures
  • Closing
  • Fees
  • Representation
  • Default

While it is not standard practice to negotiate each of these individual points in a standard residential contract, there is room to push and pull in order to either create wiggle room or close some outs (depending on which side you are on.) When you begin to examine other types of real estate contracts (commercial property, leases, options, land, new homes) then you introduce elements that fall outside of the generally accepted norms.

At One South, we pride ourselves on having a great deal of exposure to contract structures and practices due to our experience in many different arenas. Here are some things to think about.

Know Your Outs

Getting into a contract is easy but getting out can be hard, expensive, or worse – both!

Knowing on the way in, how you can get out, is important. And while you should not enter into a contract with someone for anything if your expectation is to get out later, if circumstances change and a seller is not in a giving mood, you may have to exercise an out.

In any contract, there are points where contracts can be far more easily ‘blown up’ than other points. Likewise, the closer you get to the settlement date the harder (and more expensive) it becomes. Understand the potential points in a contract where you can extricate yourself without penalty (or even lawsuit) before signing on the dotted line.

Know What Matters to Both Parties

This was an actual event — while driving home from vacation, my middle daughter in the front seat turned to my eldest in the back seat and said, ‘My sunglasses are in my bag in the back. If you get them for me, you can borrow my headphones.’  My eldest reached into the back and, without incident, got both the sunglasses and headphones. This NEVER happens in my house. NEVER. Any request made by one daughter to the other is generates a heated negotiation that usually involves me either turning up the TV or leaving the room.

This time, for reasons I am still unsure as to why they happened, it was different. My younger led with an offer of value to receive value. It was a stunning display of WIN – WIN. As a Realtor, I had never been so proud of my young negotiator.

via GIPHY

 

The lesson is as follows — we all value things differently. My middle daughter does not hate my choice in music nearly as bad as her sister so her headphones were of far more value to the elder one. But since she was sitting in the front seat and we were driving west in the afternoon, sunglasses were important. It was a perfect trade.

For someone who is attempting to sell a home and buy another one, time and flexibility matter. Allowing a seller not only the time, but the certainty to go out a buy their next home is HUGELY important to them. The use of a ‘Rent Back’ agreement is appropriate.

I once saw a seller of a large lot home toss in the John Deer tractor for free … and the purchasing suburbanite with a push mower ate it up! The ‘Bill of Sale’ is the correct tool in this scenario.

Being able to pay in a currency that matters more to them than you is always smart.

The Richmond Association of Realtors offers us over 150 different contract forms to use.
The Richmond Association of Realtors offers us over 150 different contract forms to use.

Understand Contract Structures

A contract is a flexible and malleable instrument … it can do a lot of things. Having been exposed to not only the common practices in the residential market, but the commercial and development market has given us insight into a wide range of techniques.

In the recent spring markets, multiple offers were far too common. Securing the winning offer when 3 or more people are bidding is hard. Most offers in a competitive situation include escalation clauses. Writing an escalation clause that secures the property while simultaneously paying as little as possible is an art.

Another example might be a using study period (in lieu of property inspections) and/or other phraseology to limit exposure for both parties. Often times, limiting both upside and downside is a technique that can provide a framework for a buyer and seller to reach an agreement.

Lastly, when working with buyers that need to sell a property before they qualify for another, the ‘Contingent Upon Sale’ and/or ‘Right of First Refusal’ contract is often required. It is critical to not only understand the differences, but the correct application of these contracts to best serve the client.

I shudder to think of the number of times a bid was lost or a price was escalated unnecessarily from faulty structure or from not understanding contract options.

At the end of the day, trade price for terms and you will win far more than you lose.

Conclusion

This post could have been faaaaaaarrrrrrr longer.

It is hard to say demonstrate competent contract writing in blog form as each set of circumstances is unique. The subtleties and nuanced structures should vary by the parties involved, marketplace conditions and each individual’s goals.

And while expressing what we know succinctly is challenging, I think it is fair to highlight some of deals we have negotiated to give you a sense of the depth of our experience:

  • 176 unit apartment to condo conversion
  • Both the site acquisition and subsequent sales of new infill homes in Richmond’s Fan District sold prior to construction
  • 100 acre land sale and rezoning from agricultural to commercial that involved parties from multiple markets
  • Using a 1031 tax exchange construct to acquire a single vacation home by liquidating a 22 property portfolio
  • Acquisition of several warehouses to be rezoned and subsequently renovated into Historic Tax Credit based mixed-use properties
  • Lease purchase of a single family home in suburban Richmond
  • Multiple new home sales as both listing agent an buyer’s agent
  • A non-warrantable warehouse condo with partial seller financing
  • Multiple acquisition/renovation and subsequent lot split in an urban neighborhood
  • Thousands of single family homes sales as either agent or brokerage

We know a thing or two about using the contract to our client’s advantage.

 

 

 

What Are You Going to Do to Sell My Home?

July 14, 2015 By Rick Jarvis

It is probably the most asked question by the selling public when interviewing agents for the sale of their home.  I think it is often misunderstood.

how are you going to

Each agent has a standard response to this question (it is usually some type of list) where they will tout all sorts of activities designed to impress the seller.  Some are these actions are critical and some, well, not so much.  As a matter of a fact, I once saw an agent that had broken down the home selling process into ‘113 Simple Steps’ (I kid you not.)  I always wondered if skipping a step meant failure, but I honestly didn’t have the heart to ask.

While choosing an agent to represent you in the sale of your home is important, it is not simply about tasks (otherwise ‘Mr 113 Steps’ would win every time), it is about applying the correct tools to the correct situations.

Below you will find some questions to ask and a list of things we can do for you.

What Type of Sale is Required?

In theory, all housing is unique.  In realty, much housing is very similar.

Selling contemporary infill, high performance new suburban and 20 year old town homes all require a different mix of tools.
Selling contemporary infill, high performance new suburban and 20 year old town homes all require a different mix of tools.

How an agent would approach a sale in Founder’s Bridge is largely the same as in Tarrington.  That said, selling a condo in a historic warehouse will differ greatly from selling a home on 15 acres in Goochland. The key is knowing what works in which segment.

The geographic location, the time of year, the price of the home, the type of property, the buyer’s likely profile and the age of the home all drive the correct mix of techniques.  A spring open house in the Museum District for a property priced below $400,000 might mean 100 people or more touring the property in a 2 hour period while an open house on the same day in rural Hanover County might not generate a single tour.  Similarly, putting a vinyl sided colonial built in 1992 in Estates and Homes magazine is probably not money well spent.

Just know that the ‘one-size-fits-all’ technique employed by many agents is the wrong way to go about it.  Find an agent with not only a big tool kit, but an understanding of when to use each.

To Team or Not To Team?

One of the trends in our industry over the last decade has been the rise of the real estate ‘Team.’  Teams named for the lead agent or for some esoteric concept have sprouted up everywhere. In my opinion, teams are a good thing.

It seems like all pictures of teams require the 'arms crossed' pose.  Why is that?
It seems like all pictures of real estate teams require the ‘arms crossed’ pose. Why is that?

The rise of the team is important because it acknowledges that at each level of real estate, increased specialization is beneficial.  From pricing to marketing and syndication strategies to contract administration to understanding the nuanced requirements of selling in historic or mixed-use environments, the more specific knowledge a team can bring, the better the level of service for the client.

At the end of the day, the collective value brought by a team based approach is generally better than the ‘one agent island’ employed by the majority of agents in any given market.

How Important is Zillow to Selling a Home?

When Zillow was launched in the 2006 (and cousins Trulia and Realtor.com soon thereafter), it changed our industry.  By bringing the home search process out from behind the MLS curtain and putting it on public display, it forever changed the public/Realtor dynamic.

The percentage of buyers and sellers using agents is as high as it has ever been.  Zillow and Trulia seem to think otherwise.
The percentage of buyers and sellers using agents is as high as it has ever been. Zillow and Trulia would like you to believe otherwise.

The narrative that Zillow, Trulia and Realtor would have you believe is that they disrupted the SALES process … which is, in fact, untrue.  The percentage of For Sale By Owner is at its lowest point in history and the percentage of buyers employing a Buyer’s Agent is at its highest.

What Zillow changed is the SEARCH process … not the SALES process.  It is a subtle, yet an important distinction.

This is the key takeaway –  these platforms that allow Realtors to promote properties almost instantly across a network of websites have changed how we, as agents, acquire new clients, but it has not really changed how properties are sold.  When we (Realtors) adopt an aggressive digital strategy that heavily leans on Z/T/R, the reality is that we benefit more than you do.

Be careful in mistaking an agent’s Zillow strategy as a marketing plan for your home – they are two different things.

Word_Cloud_GeneratorSo How Can You Tell the Professionals?

When you know how to correctly apply the tools, your metrics improve.

We will put our metrics up against any other company in the Metro:

  • Our marketing times are low
  • The pricing to our sellers is above the Metro average in terms of price AND of ‘price per foot’
  • And the ratio of the sold price to list price is nearly a full percentage point higher than the market average

You can read more about the way One South compares to our competition here…

Examining how well a brokerage performs on these metrics will go a long way in determining how well they know which tools work best for any given situation.

The List of Stuff We Do

All that said, if you just want a big giant list, here it is …

  • The MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE is a big part of our every day.  Keeping the database current takes time and know that agents are fined or otherwise punished for non-complinace.  Oh, Zillow and Trulia would not exist if it was not for the data contained in MLS.
  • We spend an inordinate amount of time on the VALUATION of properties.  We help sellers understand values and we help buyers understand values.
  • We PROVIDE INSIGHT, GUIDANCE and PERSPECTIVE.  Of all of the things we do, trying to explain how we are going to help you navigate an unforeseen issue before it arises is hard.  Sometimes, problems are easy to predict  (short sales are more likely to have title issues, old houses are more likely to have inspection issues, condos are more likely to have lending issues) but being able to handle the last minute issue that can derail closing is what we do every day.
  • We hold OPEN HOUSES for our clients and we will often do OPEN HOUSES for the brokerage community to introduce new properties to the marketplace.
  • One of the primary ways we raise awareness  is via the E BLAST where we send new listings, price changes and other updates to the brokerage community.
  • ZILLOW – see the section from above.  Managing Zillow, as well as TRULIA, REALTOR.com and the hundreds of other sites vying for the public’s eyeballs takes a great deal of time and effort to do right.
  • People still love a well done PRINT BROCHURE.  Despite the digital movement and the ubiquity of online information, the public wants one … so we continue to create them.
  • PROFESSIONAL PHOTOGRAPHY is a must.  While cameras, cameraphones and a host of other ways to capture and improve images exist, when the pros shoot it, it just looks better.  Use them.
  • The LOCKBOX helps record who goes in when and reports a ton of information.  We should place one on your front porch/door/railing to provide protection for your key.
  • Often, on the sign, we will place an INFO BOX so that when someone walks/drives by, they can grab a shortened version of the brochure and find out some basic info on the house.  The Zillows and Trulias of the world have largely rendered the need for the info box obsolete
  • Some swear by the VIRTUAL TOUR while others are more ho-hum about it.  Well done photography can often times be stitched together to create the VT, but nothing replaces an actual tour.
  • Individual PROPERTY WEBSITES can be very important, especially when the property rises to a certain level.  If the home is architecturally important or very specific details are required to tell the story, the a site dedicated to the property should be created.  We do this in-house, typically.
  • The rise of VIDEO in our industry is unmistakable.  The problem is, well done video is hard, expensive and time consuming.  In a market where properties are moving quickly, video may not be worth the effort.  It depends on the goal.
  • In any given day, especially in the spring, ANSWERING INQUIRIES thoughtfully and correctly has consumed the day.  An agent’s job is to answer the inquiry (from both the public and peers) in such a way that generates showings.  It is an art.
  • You would be surprised how much time is spent SCHEDULING.  Life goes on despite a For Sale sign in the front yard and trying to coordinate everyone’s schedule (buyer, seller, agent, family, inspector, contractor, insurance agent, appraiser, running late, running early, need to reschedule) can be as time consuming as any activity we do.
  • Any good agent is also adept at SHOWING.  A typical showing will take close to 2 – 3 hours ‘all-in’ when you include preparing, printing, travel time, actual demonstration of the property, turning lights on (and off) and locking up.  And often times, we show up, meet the client and show the property only to find out afterwards that they are already working with a Buyer’s Agent who they never called to show them the property.
  • Obtaining FEEDBACK that is relevant and valuable is also an art.  It takes time and you have to be diligent.  Buyer’s Agents are busy and don’t normally have the time to stop what they are doing and tell you why their client did not like your home.  Good listing agents are diligent about the feedback loop.
  • We NEGOTIATE CONTRACTS and then we NEGOTIATE INSPECTIONS.  Remember, contracts are combinations of a price AND terms.  Many tend neglect the terms in exchange for price and it is a shame.  So much seller benefit can be gained by focusing on the terms of a deal.  Without going into too much detail and giving away all of our secrets, we firmly believe in negotiating with a plan in mind.  Know where you stand.  Know the market.  Know your goals.  Negotiate accordingly.
  • Lenders/Loan Issues delay closings more than any other reason.  COORDINATING WITH THE LENDER is the most critical thing we do while the home is under contract.  Making sure the lender has copy of all of the paperwork, contract, addendum, pest report, necessary inspections, addenda, HOA Docs and every other piece of paper they need in order to get the loan underwritten and in the closing queue to make sure we do not miss a date.  As a matter of a fact, One South views this piece as so critical, we have an entire staff dedicated to making sure that the lenders have what they need from us.
  • COORDINATING WITH THE CLOSING ATTORNEY is as equally important.  They need the same things as the lender (plus a few others) and with the volume of sales flowing through the system right now, getting everything to the closing attorney promptly (or making sure the Buyer’s Agent did) is a big part of representing you client.

You’re Gonna Be Mad at Us…

July 6, 2015 By Rick Jarvis

You are about to get really mad at your Realtor … and your lender … and your attorney.

And you know what?  It isn’t our fault.iStock_000013841997_Large_jpg

Beginning in late 2015/early 2016, the way real estate transactions are closed will change and change substantially.  Since becoming licensed in the early 1990’s, this is by far and away the most fundamental structural change I have even seen in our industry.

Dodd – Frank and the CFPB

In 2010, the Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (also known as Dodd – Frank) was signed into law by President Obama.  With its signing, Dodd-Frank brought sweeping change to the way the financial markets were regulated.  It also gave birth to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB).

Dodd – Frank (and the CFPB) was created in direct response to the financial crisis. It was designed to put more controls in place, as well as harsh penalties for intentional fraudulent practices, to prevent another complete economic collapse on the scale of what happened in 2008.  And as the real estate market (ok, lending) was one of the chief culprits in the meltdown, it too, fell under the changes brought by Dodd – Frank.

Fast forward from 2010 to 2016, and we are now seeing the full impact of Dodd – Frank.  The changes are far from all positive.

The Financial Crisis

One of the main goals of Dodd – Frank was to protect a largely uninformed public from unscrupulous and predatory lenders.

The Dodd-Frank legislation is 848 pages if you care to read it.
The original legislation is 848 pages if you care to read it, but click here for a synopsis.

During the run up to the crash of 2008, a largely unregulated lending market began to create mortgage products which were intentionally disingenuous. These highly leveraged adjustable interest only loan products were not designed to help someone own a home, but to extract as much in interest payments as possible.  The loan products created mortgage time bombs as rates adjusted upwards and payments on the loans increased well beyond buyer’s ability to repay them.

Those who created the loan products were able to insure them against default (which was totally insane and probably the biggest cause of the crisis) and thus carried no risk … which only encouraged riskier and risker behaviors.  Cracks appeared in the financial dam in late 2007 and by summer of 2008, all forms of lending effectively ceased, largely freezing the real estate market in place.

Know Before You Owe

Would 2008 have happened if the borrowers of the world knew what they were borrowing?  Hard to say.

Regardless, it appears that the CFPB does feel that way and thus, the changes now being put in place.  In order to create an environment where consumers were far more certain about the products they were signing on for, the CFPB has adopted the philosophy of ‘Know Before You Owe‘ in an attempt to save borrowers from the evil lenders.

Know_Before_You_Owe___Consumer_Financial_Protection_Bureau
Gotta love when the Federal Government uses logos and catchy sayings

The key to protecting the borrower from the lender, in the opinion of the CFPB, is more time, longer forms and harsh penalties. By completely revamping the lending practices of mortgage originators, the CFPB is effectively forcing lenders to disclose more fully and far earlier than before with extremely large penalties for non-compliance.  Hopefully, consumers will have more time to comprehend the loan products they are committing to and lenders will be far more reticent to push the boundaries of good faith knowing fines exist as large as $1M per day for willing non-compliance.

Disclosure Earlier is Good, Right?

An informed consumer is a better consumer … this cannot be argued.  Forcing the lenders into better disclosure earlier in the process means a better informed client.  Once again, this is a good thing.

In order to force lenders to fully disclose earlier, the CFPB has demanded two major changes.  The first change is in how disclosure happens.  The closing statement that had been used for decades is being replaced by new form that is both longer and in more detail.  Effectively, the Truth in Lending Statement and the HUD 1 Closing Form (aka Closing Statement) are being merged into one mega-form now called the Loan Estimate and Closing Disclosure.  It can be argued that this change is more annoying than structural and will not really have an impact other than some short term confusion as attorneys, lenders and Realtors get familiar with the new terminology.

The second, and far more impactful change, is that all of these documents must be delivered to the borrower a minimum of 3 days prior to closing.  Gone are the days when the HUD would arrive 30 minutes prior to closing and everyone saw it for the first time when they sat down to sign paperwork and made any and all adjustments to the form while sitting at the closing table.  The closing attorney (or title company) had the power to make minor adjustments to the closing statement in real time to fix errors or omissions.  No longer.

Sequential closings are going to experience a ton of problems...
Sequential closings are going to experience a ton of problems…

You Only Hurt the Ones You Love

On the surface this sounds like a great idea … lets get everything ironed out earlier!  Having a chance to review the package well in front of closing feels much better than hoping that the closing statement will be correct when you arrive at closing with movers on the way and your sick kid at your sister-in-law’s house.

But what happens if the statement is wrong?

Any amendment requires the 3 day process to begin anew. Imagine going to a walk through and seeing that a repair was not done correctly and the seller and buyer agree to escrow $1,000 for the repair … guess what??  You gotta wait ANOTHER 3 days to close.  Or what if the builder forgot to show a $2,500 credit for the upgraded appliance package?  Yep, 3 more days…

The ability to make adjustments to the closing statement is now, for all intents and purposes, gone.  In its place is 3 days of pain, stress and frustration while the paperwork is amended, resubmitted and subject to another mandatory 3 day review period.

When you think about the impact this will have on closings where multiple homes are expected to close in sequence, you can begin to see the trouble this will cause.  If any one of the loans in the chain requires modification, it will slow down the process by a minimum of 3 days.

And heaven forbid if you have used an internet lender in a different time zone.  I can’t imagine the pain this will cause.

While I agree with full and complete disclosure, the CFPB has not anticipated the ancillary impact this requirement will have.  Removing the ability to make legitimate modifications to the closing statement is not consumer protection.

Marginal Buyers Lose

The sequential closing is a hugely important part of our the market, especially for buyers who have little equity and are unable to qualify without the sale of their home.  The 3 day right to review will wreak havoc on the closing process that we have all become so accustomed to and understand so well. By outlawing what are benign and minimal, but necessary, last minute changes to the closing statement and forcing a minimum of a 3 day wait upon the parties is either going to:

  • Discourage the practice and force marginal buyers to stay in place
  • Force many last minute panic moves or late closing penalties on the marginal buyer
  • Force buyers to accept incorrect closing statements due to penalties for non-performance exceeding the incorrect costs on the closing statement

I am not sure that this is what the CFPB intended.

Sorry…

I am already rehearsing my apology.

The first time the problems arise (and they will), the buyers and sellers of the world are going to get angry.  ‘What do you mean we aren’t closing for another three days?!?!  The movers are on the way!!!  My new job in Poughkeepsie starts Monday!!’

Sorry.  I really cannot help.

I fully expect to take many daggers because of someone else’s mistakes and there will be nothing that I can do about it.  Nor can the attorney, nor can the lender.

At the end of the day, the old world is no more and we now have a far more regulated and inflexible process that, I feel, will cause more harm to the consumer than protection.  The lending institutions of the world that caused the crash are no more.  Enacting rules to prevent their fraudulent practices is akin to closing the barn doors after the horses are long gone.

But the doors are now closed and those who are left in the barn are now trapped with far less room to maneuver.

 

 

What Did It Sell For?

July 5, 2015 By Rick Jarvis

The ability to look into the future to see trends is pretty cool...
The ability to look into the future to see trends is pretty cool…

Early each spring, the trees begin to bud, the birds and squirrels begin to be seen with more and more regularity and the real estate market begins anew.  About the time the first day a short sleeved shirt seems appropriate, the pressure to decide whether to buy a home (or sell one) rises and everyone in the marketplace begins to look for clues about what pricing will do this year.  Soon, the buyers and sellers begin their oft-repeated mating ritual where each side tries to figure out how much, if at all, the pricing has advanced from last year.

The Multiple Listing Services (MLS) is the primary resource for housing information.  It records 95%+ of the residential transactions that occur in our marketplace and in doing so, gives us tremendous insight into how buyers valued properties.  That said, the transactions recorded by MLS have by their very nature occurred in the past and thus offer only a partial view of the future.

Looking into future in any industry is of great value.  It sure would be great if we could predict the future of real estate market, wouldn’t it?

Understanding MLS Statuses

While MLS allows for 9 different statuses which describe the availability of a specific property, there are generally 3 that matter most – ACTIVE, PENDING and SOLD.

  • ACTIVE means the property is currently available FOR SALE
  • PENDING means the property is UNDER CONTRACT between buyer and seller with agreed upon price and terms but has not transferred.  The terms of the sale are not public knowledge
  • SOLD means the property has TRANSFERRED and the price and terms are now public knowledge
The ability to search the MLS by status can provide valuable intel about where the market is and where it is heading
The ability to search the MLS by status can provide valuable intel about where the market is and where it is heading

The key difference is that the pending sale terms are not fully disclosed until the property closes.  So, in theory, little real intel can be gathered from a pending sale until it officially closes usually 45 – 90 days from the date it went under contract.

Or can it…

Sales are Seasonal

The seasonality of real estate is undeniable.

Each spring, the rate at which housing is absorbed begins to rise and continues to rise until reaching its peak sometime in the June/July time frame.  In most years, the number of sales recorded from January to June will represent roughly 60% of the sales of the entire year.  Furthermore, the 4 month period of March through June typically yields 40% or more of the entire year’s sales.

So, a large majority of the housing decisions made during the year are being made without the benefit of knowing the details of the sales in PENDING status.  But that does not mean that we cannot make some educated guesses.

What We Can Tell

In MLS, the only information that is entered when the status changes from active to pending is which agent sold it and on what day the contract was accepted.  So when the property pends, the number of days the property was marketed freezes allowing us to look at how long it took for the property to sell.  This statistic is called ‘Days on Market’ and measures the time between when the property was brought to the market and when it went under contract.

As one would expect, there is a correlation between the number of days it took the property to sell and the percentage of the asking price the seller received.  Using the last 12 months of sales between $400k and 800k in the Greater Richmond Metropolitan Region, you can see a trend develop:

sales_prices_huntts_row

The obvious conclusion is that the longer the amount of time the property spends on the market, the bigger discount a seller is forced to take.

Applying the Data

In a nutshell, if you are trying to look at MLS in March for guidance, you are not going to find many closed sales from the current year … they just haven’t happened yet. Being able to draw insight from the most current available data (the PENDING inventory) is incredibly helpful in creating winning strategies.  Using the chart above to guide your offer (or counter-offer) will help you understand the probable prices at which key sales will close.

The Magic of MLS

July 4, 2015 By Rick Jarvis

We love our Multiple Listing Service (MLS.)

In terms of importance, think of it this way – it is a curated database that has recorded in great detail upwards of 95% of the real estate transactions that have occurred in our marketplace dating back decades. The accuracy of the database is protected by spot checks, self-policing and stiff penalties for incorrect use (both accidental and intentional.)  I challenge anyone to find a more accurate database that is as all-enomcpassing as the local MLS.

iStock_000049986426_XXXLarge_jpg

Why MLS Matters

When you realize that the local MLS database helps guide millions of people in the acquisition and sale of what is typically one of the biggest, if not THE biggest assets in their portfolio, you begin to understand its importance.

[ Want a direct link to MLS?  Click here to learn how ] 

People tend to think of MLS in terms of letting Realtors know what is on the market and what has recently sold … which MLS does and does quite well.   But most don’t often consider what else it can tell us and how to use that knowledge to guide us.  The idea of ‘Big Data’ is entering its golden age as the software required to do first rate analysis of the data is becoming simultaneously cheaper and more powerful. It will not be long before SAS or IBM brings the capability to analyze large swaths of data to the layperson level and I, personally, can’t wait.

But until we can buy access to the software cheaply enough AND MLS allows unfettered access to the records (they currently have strict limits on downloads), the best we can do is use the existing tools in MLS to analyze smaller data sets to try to find answers to some really neat questions.

Below are some statistics that are easily computable in MLS, yet rarely used.

List Price to Sale Price Ratio (LP/SP)

The price a seller is asking for a home and the price it sells for is generally not equal.  In most markets, the seller and buyer negotiate a price that is below the asking price by some number.  In some instances (most commonly in the spring and in a highly sought-after market,) the price may get bid up above the original asking price if multiple offers are received.

Now the statistic itself, for most markets, tends to stay somewhere in the 94-98% range.  In the darkest days of 2009-11, we did see some instances of sub 90% LP/SP, but that is rare.  A general rule of thumb is that 3% below ask is a good number to model.

Now, many choose to use the LP/SP ratio when coming up with an offer OR when estimating their proceeds from a sale.  Both of these uses are legitimate and informative.

That said, the statistic delivers another very powerful message that is not oft-discussed.  Assuming for a minute that a buyer will generally negotiate up by roughly the same amount a seller will negotiate down, most offers will come in anywhere from 92 – 95% of the actual asking price.  This implies the asking price for a home must be within 8% of the actual value of the home in order to receive an offer.  Otherwise, the buyer is likely to focus on other homes for sale.

It is amazing the number of sellers who fail to realize that the practice of raising the price to allow for future concessions often times prevents them from receiving an offer.

Inventory

We spend a great deal of time at One South following the inventory in the marketplace.

Inventory levels matter.  The chart above shows the number of homes available relative to the number of homes being absorbed.  Inventory is measured in time (months) and effectively states that if no new homes were to come to the market, how long would we have, given the current rate of absorption, before we ran out of homes to buy.

In economic terms, buyers collectively act rationally.  Acting ‘rationally’ means they will be attracted to the best value available in any given marketplace.  The more options there are relative to the number of buyers in the market, the less power any individual seller has.  Often times, sellers tend to look to the past to price their home and pay little to no attention to current market conditions (we wrote an entire post on this exact topic here…) and almost always ignore the impact of seasonality.  Taking into account inventory makes for far better pricing (and negotiating) decisions.

Market Activity

One of my personal favorite metrics to track is the number of pending sales.  When a home is placed under contract, it is considered to be in ‘Pending’ status in MLS.  The rate of new pending inventory in a strong indicator of market activity.

The chart below includes the rate of closed sales as well as new pending sales.  As you can tell, the pending sales tend to occur anywhere from 45 – 60 days prior to closed sales.


Most national statistics track closed sales and in doing so, deliver reports on market conditions that lag the actual market conditions.  When we hear government sponsored statistics discussing market health, it can be misleading as the activity being reported is generally 3 – 4 months old.  Keeping an eye on the pending inventory will give you a far better picture of where your market stands currently.

Conclusion

We touched on a few of the easier but still insightful statistics.  But with just a little thought and some basic knowledge of how to download data, some amazing observations can be made.  We have helped our clients price some truly special properties and accurately predict buyer behaviors that would not be evident without some in-depth analysis.

MLS can help you find:

  • How much more buyers are willing to pay for a new home
  • How much less buyers are willing to pay for homes with clapboard siding than vinyl
  • How much of a discount or premium the market expects for different streets in the Fan
  • The impact of non-warrantable condo associations on values

Challenge your agent to deliver you real insight, not just ‘comps.’  MLS is a wonderful database and asking it the correct questions will yield some great intel.

 

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